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LU9DCE > ALERT 20.05.23 14:05l 313 Lines 11605 Bytes #8 (0) @ WW
BID : 503_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 20-MAY23
Path: IW8PGT<I3XTY<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 230520/1200Z 503@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT MAY 20 08:45:02 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT MAY 20 08:45:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT MAY 20 08:45:02 UTC 2023
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT MAY 20 08:45:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC MAY 20, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2023
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS...SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO REGION...AND INTERIOR OREGON AND WASHINGTON...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST, LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TEXAS, SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO REGION, AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OREGON AND WASHINGTON.
...DISCUSSION...
SEASONALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS. EVEN SO, MODEST 500MB FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH/NORTHERN GULF STATES DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL ENCOURAGE A
SURFACE FRONT TO ADVANCE INTO MIDDLE TN-NORTHERN AL-CENTRAL MS/LA BY
18Z, WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. EARLY THIS MORNING, SCATTERED CONVECTION PERSISTS
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN AR, IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
THEN POSSIBLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY BY MID DAY AS
BUOYANCY IMPROVES DUE TO LOW-LEVEL HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
EXHIBIT MODEST INSTABILITY BUT POOR LAPSE RATES. WHILE MID-LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY, IT'S NOT CLEAR HOW INTENSE THIS
CONVECTION WILL ULTIMATELY BE DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES. SOME
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH A FEW WEAK SUPERCELLS. WILL
MAINTAIN MRGL RISK AT THIS TIME DUE TO INSTABILITY ISSUES. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL ARE THE EXPECTED THREATS.
TRAILING FRONT HAS SURGED INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TX. THE MAJORITY OF
CONVECTION REMAINS POST-FRONTAL AND SHOULD GRADUALLY PROPAGATE
TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING WILL BE WEST
OF THE RIO GRANDE, THUS THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL
INITIALLY BE OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD
INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF DEEP SOUTH TX LATER IN THE DAY.
GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
UPSTREAM, EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL COMPONENT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS FAR
WEST TX INTO SOUTHWESTERN NM. STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
EASILY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE
MID 70S. GUSTY WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS.
STRONG SURFACE HEATING EAST OF THE CASCADES, ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE, WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP SURFACE-3KM
LAPSE RATES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR WA/OR BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE STRONGLY SHEARED, BUT ADEQUATE FLOW SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME ORGANIZATION. GUSTY WINDS/HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS WITH THIS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
..DARROW/THORNTON.. 05/20/2023
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SPC MAY 20, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2023
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON INTO FAR EASTERN WA...NORTHERN ID...AND FAR
WESTERN MT...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL
OREGON INTO FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON, NORTHERN IDAHO, AND FAR WESTERN
MONTANA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
PREDOMINANTLY WEAK FLOW EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH RIDGING IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WEAK FLOW WILL BE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO ME, WHICH WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA, AND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH.
SURFACE PATTERN EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE, THE CENTER OF WHICH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DRIFT
EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN MO INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. DRY AIR MASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH WILL LIMIT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, CONFINING THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TX.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN NC TO FL. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, SUPPORTED BY A CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE UPPER RIDGING.
MODEST SHEAR AND BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
...INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FROM THE INTERIOR
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HERE, A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON,
CONTRIBUTING TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
DIURNALLY DESTABILIZED AIR MASS IN PLACE. COLD MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE BUOYANCY, WITH INCREASING
MID-LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN MODERATE SHEAR AS WELL. THESE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONGER STORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND/OR HAIL.
..MOSIER.. 05/20/2023
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SPC MAY 20, 2023 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2023
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON MONDAY IS EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE
IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 5%.
...SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONUS EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES IN THE VICINITY OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE.
SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES,
BUT BUOYANCY WILL BE MODEST AND STORM COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
FARTHER EAST, EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGING WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS, RELEGATING THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS (ON THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING). LEE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, CONTRIBUTING TO A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS. RESULTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND GREATER BUOYANCY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THAN SUNDAY. IF THESE
CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER, OUTFLOW FROM ANTECEDENT STORMS COULD IMPEDE THIS MOISTURE
RETURN. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE PREVIOUS DAY'S
STORMS TO RESULT IN A LOCALIZE VORTICITY MAXIMUM, WHICH WOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE WEAK UPPER
FLOW, PREDICTABILITY OF THESE FEATURES IS LOW, LIMITING FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.
..MOSIER.. 05/20/2023
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SPC MAY 20, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2023
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. THE
ABSENCE OF ANY LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF EXTENSIVE SURFACE RIDGING, KEEPING A LARGE RESERVOIR OF 60+
DEWPOINTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
DURING THIS PERIOD, HELPING TO SUPPORT CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING AS
WELL AS DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD THEN MOVE INTO THE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, CONTRIBUTING TO
SOME SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY, A MODERATE LOW-LEVEL JET
IS ANTICIPATED NIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS,
SUPPORTING SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE FORECAST RANGE, OVERALL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN,
WITH PRECEDING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GREATLY IMPACTING THE FOLLOWING
DAY'S SEVERE POTENTIAL. THIS LIMITS PREDICTABILITY, RESULTING IN LOW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
THERE IS SOME SIGNAL IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE THAT A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, VARIABILITY REMAINS HIGH WITHIN THE
GUIDANCE, AND PREDICTABILITY IS LOW.
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2023
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TODAY WILL ENCOMPASS A WEAKENING UPPER-LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US, COOLER POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND A TROUGH EXITING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
US. THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE CONUS, LIMITING
FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL AND PRECLUDING THE NEED TO INCLUDE ANY AREAS.
..THORNTON.. 05/20/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2023
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
ON SUNDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MOISTURE NORTHWARD. WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. DRYING CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH RECENT ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL
LEADING TO LARGELY WET FUELS. AS SUCH, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN
LOW WITH NO AREAS INCLUDED.
..THORNTON.. 05/20/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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