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LU9DCE > ALERT 25.09.23 10:36l 212 Lines 6859 Bytes #136 (0) @ WW
BID : 7740_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 25-SEP23
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 230925/0731Z 7740@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 695
WW 695 SEVERE TSTM TX 242150Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 695
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
450 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2023
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 450 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SUMMARY...SCATTERED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FROM NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS, AND
STORMS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO 2.5 INCHES IN
DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ALONG WITH DAMAGING
OUTFLOW GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH STORM CLUSTERS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST
OF DALLAS TX TO 40 MILES WEST OF AUSTIN TX. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION
OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
32020.
...THOMPSON
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 695 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0695 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 695
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SJT
TO 50 S BWD TO 30 E SEP TO 35 NNW DAL TO 30 WSW PRX TO 30 N PRX.
..MOORE..09/25/23
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 695
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC001-021-027-031-035-053-055-085-099-113-119-121-139-145-161-
171-193-209-213-217-223-231-251-257-259-265-267-277-281-287-289-
293-299-309-319-327-331-349-379-395-397-439-453-467-491-
250340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BASTROP BELL
BLANCO BOSQUE BURNET
CALDWELL COLLIN CORYELL
DALLAS DELTA DENTON
ELLIS FALLS FREESTONE
GILLESPIE HAMILTON HAYS
HENDERSON HILL HOPKINS
HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN
KENDALL KERR KIMBLE
LAMAR LAMPASAS LEE
LEON LIMESTONE LLANO
MCLENNAN MASON MENARD
MILAM NAVARRO RAINS
ROBERTSON ROCKWALL TARRANT
TRAVIS VAN ZANDT WILLIAMSON
READ MORE
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SPC MD 2194
MD 2194 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 695... FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2194
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0953 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2023
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 695...
VALID 250253Z - 250430Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 695
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, ALONG
WITH LOCAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WITH
SEVERE-WEATHER POTENTIAL LIKELY TO PERSIST LOCALLY BEYOND THE
SCHEDULED 25/04Z EXPIRATION OF WW 695, LOCAL WW EXTENSIONS AND/OR A
NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS SCATTERED STRONG/ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ONGOING FROM PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS, WHERE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE
PERSISTS, PER RAP-BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
CAPE, AND GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSING OKLAHOMA AND THE OZARKS PER RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOP, STORMS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS, WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE-WEATHER RISK. DEPENDING UPON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO, CONTINUATION OF A WATCH BEYOND 25/04Z MAY BE
REQUIRED.
..GOSS.. 09/25/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 30799982 30819852 31829717 32879711 33309640 33099532
32819476 32309474 31359532 30549665 29859802 29839910
30799982
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SPC SEP 25, 2023 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2023
VALID 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ARKLATEX/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS AND VICINITY.
...CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX...EXTREME SOUTHEAST OK...ARKLATEX...
THE MAIN CHANGE AT 01Z WAS TO TRIM PROBABILITIES ON THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN EDGES OF THE OUTLOOK AREA IN CENTRAL TX, SOUTHEAST OK AND
SOUTHWEST AR. THESE CHANGES ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE LOCATION OF ONGOING SEVERE CONVECTION.
FOR DETAILS REGARDING SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL/ACTIVITY REFER TO
MCD 2193 AND WW 695. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT IN A CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION REGIME WITH
SOME SEVERE RISK PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
..LEITMAN.. 09/25/2023
READ MORE
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