| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 14.10.23 20:36l 116 Lines 5155 Bytes #156 (0) @ WW
BID : 8733_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 14-OCT23
Path: IW8PGT<I3XTY<I0OJJ<GB7CIP<KA1VSC<VE3CGR<KF5JRV<W0ARP<LU9DCE
Sent: 231014/1830Z 8733@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT OCT 14 14:02:02 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT OCT 14 14:02:02 UTC 2023.
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT OCT 14 14:02:02 UTC 2023
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT OCT 14 14:02:02 UTC 2023.
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC OCT 14, 2023 1300 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1300Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT SAT OCT 14 2023
VALID 141300Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING TO MARGINALLY SEVERE GUSTS AND/OR A
TORNADO TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
...SYNOPSIS...
OVER THE CONUS, AMPLIFICATION OF THE MEAN MID/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST, AND A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTRIBUTES TO NET HEIGHT FALLS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER A BROAD AREA FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE TWO STRONGEST OF THOSE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ARE APPARENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER:
1. PORTIONS OF WI/IL/MO, WITH A WEAK 500-MB LOW OVER NORTHERN IL.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVOLVE TO AN OPEN-WAVE TROUGH AND
LOSE AMPLITUDE, CROSSING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AROUND
06-9Z.
2. WESTERN SD INITIALLY, WITH AN AT LEAST INTERMITTENTLY CLOSED
500-MB LOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TO EAST-CENTRAL NE BY 00Z, THEN
SOUTHWESTERN MO AROUND 12Z TOMORROW.
APPROACH OF THE LEADING MID/UPPER PERTURBATION WILL STRENGTHEN AN
INITIALLY WEAK, FRONTAL-WAVE SURFACE LOW, ANALYZED AT 11Z OVER
EASTERN SC BETWEEN SSC-CHS AT 11Z. A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM
THAT LOW SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS THEN BENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL FL TO THE CENTRAL GULF. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SC LOW INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER OH/IN/IL, UNDER AND AHEAD OF THE MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A WARM FRONT WAS DRAWN FROM THE SC LOW NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NC AND PAST HSE. A SHALLOW
STABLE LAYER IN THE 12Z MHX RAOB, WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS,
INDICATED THE BOUNDARY WAS JUST SOUTH OF THERE, NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
BEACHES. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
BUT PROBABLY IN A DIFFUSE AND ERRATIC MANNER BECAUSE OF PRECIP TO
ITS NORTH. BY 00Z THE COASTAL LOW AND WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR CAPE CHARLES/SOUTHERNMOST DELMARVA REGION,
WITH COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERNMOST NC. THIS LOW AND THE
WARM FRONT SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE THEREAFTER.
...EASTERN NC...
ONGOING PRECIP IS APPARENT IN IRREGULARLY SIZED PATCHES OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS, ESPECIALLY NC. LITTLE OR NO THUNDER HAS OCCURRED
IN THE LAST FEW HOURS, LIKELY RELATED TO A LAYER OF POOR MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WELL-SAMPLED BY THE 12Z CHS SOUNDING. THIS ACTIVITY,
AND ASSOCIATED AREAS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP, WILL SUBSTANTIALLY LIMIT
DIABATIC HEATING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.
HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IN THE CLOUD/PRECIP AREA, WHILE
CHARACTERIZED BY STABLE TO NEUTRAL LAPSE RATES INITIALLY, ONLY NEEDS
WEAK HEATING AND WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TO YIELD ENOUGH THETA-E FOR
SURFACE-BASED EFFECTIVE-INFLOW PARCELS TO OVERCOME THE WEAK MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THAT SHOULD OCCUR, WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS SPREADING NORTHWARD/INLAND OVER EASTERN NC EAST THROUGH
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW. 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE IS POSSIBLE IN A NARROW
PLUME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WHICH ALSO MAY SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT, IN A BROKEN ARC.
EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 45-55 KT SUGGEST SOME OF THE
CONVECTION MAY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR -- ESPECIALLY WHATEVER CAN
REMAIN DISCRETE THROUGH MATURITY.
IN BOTH CASES (LEADING PLUME AND POSSIBLE FRONTAL FOLLOW-UP),
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HODOGRAPHS WILL BE WELL-CURVED BUT NOT
PARTICULARLY LARGE, LEADING TO MARGINAL SRH WITH VALUES SUCH AS:
EFFECTIVE AND 0-3 KM OF 100-300 J/KG, AND 0-1-KM OF 75-150 J/KG.
VORTICITY ENHANCEMENT ALONG FAVORABLY POSITIONED OUTFLOW/
DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARIES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LOCAL MAXIMA
IN STORM-SCALE ROTATION AND TORNADO POTENTIAL, BUT THIS THREAT
APPEARS QUITE CONDITIONAL AND ISOLATED. THE MOST INTENSE CELLS ALSO
MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS, AND A SEVERE GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..EDWARDS/BROYLES.. 10/14/2023
READ MORE
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
HYPERTEXT PREPROCESSOR - DEVELOPED BY LU9DCE - VERSION 3
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
