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LU9DCE > ALERT 22.05.23 14:05l 328 Lines 12378 Bytes #10 (0) @ WW
BID : 628_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 22-MAY23
Path: IW8PGT<I3XTY<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 230522/1201Z 628@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON MAY 22 08:34:01 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON MAY 22 08:34:01 UTC 2023.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON MAY 22 08:34:01 UTC 2023
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON MAY 22 08:34:01 UTC 2023.
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SPC MAY 22, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT MON MAY 22 2023
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS. ADDITIONAL
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF MONTANA, AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA/GEORGIA INTO FLORIDA.
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DETACHED WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH (SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST
NM). THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE
LATER TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 500MB TO
STRENGTHEN A BIT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
TX. SEASONALLY COOL 500MB TEMPERATURES (MINUS 10-12C) WILL PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING
ACROSS THIS REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ONGOING AHEAD OF THIS MID-LEVEL
FEATURE FROM SOUTHWEST KS INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. HOWEVER, IT'S
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OR ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. IN THE ABSENCE OF
A NOTABLE LLJ, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND WEAK
THROUGH SUNRISE, AND LIKELY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH 18Z. WITH
TIME BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING WILL REMOVE INHIBITION AND SURFACE
PARCELS WILL BREACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES, LIKELY BY 21Z. LATEST
THINKING IS SCATTERED ROBUST STORMS WILL EVOLVE WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME, AIDED BY THE WEAK DISTURBANCE, ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
OF WEST TX. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HAIL/WIND.
...MT...
HIGH-LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD MT AHEAD OF A STRONG,
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MONDAY. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS ONE 500MB SPEED MAX
WILL TRANSLATE TROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER OR BEFORE EJECTING
INTO NORTHWEST MT BY 23/00Z, THEN INTO SOUTHERN AB BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS EVOLUTION WOULD ALLOW MEANINGFUL HEIGHT FALLS TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE A SURFACE FRONT TO
SURGE INTO CENTRAL MT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
IT APPEARS PW VALUES SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE WIND SHIFT. SURFACE HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED, POTENTIALLY ROBUST, CONVECTION INITIATING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY 20Z. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST
TOWARD LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WOULD APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH SOME HAIL
THREAT.
...FL REGION...
25-30KT 500MB WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
MONDAY AS LOW-LATITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY2
PERIOD. IT'S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHETHER A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
ACTUALLY INFLUENCE CONVECTION DURING THE DAY, BUT SEASONALLY COOL
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL PROVE
INSTRUMENTAL IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ROBUST CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEAST AL. GUSTY WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT MATERIALIZES BY MID
DAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
..DARROW/THORNTON.. 05/22/2023
READ MORE
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SPC MAY 22, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT MON MAY 22 2023
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON TUESDAY,
FLANKED ON EACH SIDE BY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. ANY STRONGER FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO MONDAY,
WITH RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST, GREAT LAKES, AND OH VALLEY AND LEE
TROUGHING THROUGHOUT THE HIGH PLAINS.
ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST
ACROSS NV, AS WEAK ASCENT GLANCES THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER THAN MONDAY, LIMITING THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN OK AND NORTHWEST TX...
PRECEDING STORMS (AND RESULTING OUTFLOW) COULD DICTATE THE SEVERE
THREAT OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT LOW
60S DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE, DESPITE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
EVENING. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED RELATIVELY EARLY (I.E. BEFORE
21Z) IN THE TX PANHANDLE/NM BORDER VICINITY, AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED
WITH DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE TX PANHANDLE, WHILE ALSO SUPPORTING MODERATE
BUOYANCY. AS A RESULT, THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE NM/TX
BORDER VICINITY WOULD THEN EVOLVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MORE
BUOYANT AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM. GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUD BASES, AN
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORM MODE IS FAVORED, WITH A QUICK TRANSITION
TOWARDS A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE ANTICIPATED. AS SUCH, THE PRIMARY
RISK WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING GUSTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A REMOTE
CHANCE OF MORE DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE, WHERE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS COULD PROMOTE A SUPERCELLULAR MODE.
...GREAT BASIN...
EARLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AS MODEST
ASCENT ATTENDANT TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH
THE UNSTABLE AND MODEST BUOYANT AIR MASS IN PLACE. DESPITE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW, OWING PRIMARILY TO THE LACK OF
STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR.
..MOSIER.. 05/22/2023
READ MORE
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SPC MAY 22, 2023 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT MON MAY 22 2023
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.
...SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION...
SOME MODEST DEEPENING OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING IS ANTICIPATED
ON WEDNESDAY, PROMOTED BY A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING
THROUGH ITS BASE OVER CA AND THE GREAT BASIN. UPPER RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, WHILE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST WHILE MATURING.
SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO
PRECEDING DAYS, WITH LEE TROUGHING THROUGHOUT THE HIGH PLAINS AND
60S DEWPOINTS CONFINED TO TX AND OK. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST, A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. MODEST BUOYANCY MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. ENHANCED
MID/UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING GUSTS. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
STORM COVERAGE PRECLUDES DELINEATING ANY AREAS.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LAYOUT, A REPEATED SCENARIO OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS
ANTICIPATED. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH
DAMAGING GUSTS AS THE MAIN THREAT. A CORRIDOR OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SEVERE STORMS COVERAGE MAY MATERIALIZE, BUT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
PRECEDING THUNDERSTORMS AND RELATED OUTFLOW PREVENTS THE CONFIDENCE
NEEDED TO DELINEATE HIGHER PROBABILITIES WITH THIS OUTLOOK.
..MOSIER.. 05/22/2023
READ MORE
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SPC MAY 22, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CDT MON MAY 22 2023
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO ADVERTISE A MORE DEFINED OMEGA
BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE CONUS BY D5/FRIDAY, WITH THIS BLOCKING
PATTERN THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE HAS ALSO
SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF A SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH
IS NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON
D7/SUNDAY. SOME HIGHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY MATERIALIZE
WHENEVER THIS WAVE DOES EJECT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, BUT
THE VARIABILITY WITHIN THE GUIDANCE LIMITS PREDICTABILITY.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED MODEST FLOW ALOFT AND ANTICIPATED BLOCKING
PATTERN, A REPEATED SCENARIO OF DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS LIKELY.
SOME SEVERE MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS EACH DAY, BUT THE
PREDICTABILITY OF THEIR LOCATION AND COVERAGE IS LOW AT THIS
FORECAST RANGE.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 AM CDT MON MAY 22 2023
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS OVER CALIFORNIA AND DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS. ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL WITHIN THIS REGION HAS
RESULTED IN UNSEASONABLY MOIST FUELS, WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA. GIVEN THE STATE OF FUELS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS, NO
AREAS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED.
..THORNTON.. 05/22/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 AM CDT MON MAY 22 2023
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY, SCOURING OUT REMAINING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE, WITH POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF ELEVATED
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ARIZONA,
SOUTHERN NEVADA, AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THESE REGIONS HAVE SEEN
ABOVE NORMAL RECENT RAINFALL, WITH UNSEASONABLY MOIST FUELS,
PRECLUDING THE NEED TO INCLUDE ANY AREAS.
..THORNTON.. 05/22/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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