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LU9DCE > ALERT 21.11.23 10:06l 266 Lines 8035 Bytes #193 (0) @ WW
BID : 2447_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 21-NOV23
Path: IW8PGT<I3XTY<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<GB7CIP<KA1VSC<VE3CGR<KE6CHO<LU9DCE
Sent: 231121/0800Z 2447@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 712
WW 712 TORNADO LA MS 202150Z - 210500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 712
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CST MON NOV 20 2023
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CST.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHILE POSING A THREAT FOR TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
ISOLATED HAIL. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL LIKELY PERSIST
WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE MILES
NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF NATCHEZ
MS TO 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF PINE BELT MS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 711...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
...GLEASON
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 712 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0712 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 712
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW HEZ
TO 55 NNE MCB TO 45 E GWO.
..LYONS..11/21/23
ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 712
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC033-037-063-077-091-103-105-117-121-125-210340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA LIVINGSTON
POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. TAMMANY
TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE
WEST FELICIANA
MSC001-005-019-023-029-031-035-037-061-065-067-069-073-075-077-
079-085-091-099-101-103-109-113-121-123-127-129-147-157-159-
210340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS AMITE CHOCTAW
CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON
FORREST FRANKLIN JASPER
JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER
LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LEAKE LINCOLN MARION
NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 711 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0711 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 711
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE BPT
TO 15 N POE TO 25 NNW HEZ.
..SQUITIERI..11/20/23
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...LCH...HGX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 711
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-009-011-019-025-029-035-039-053-059-065-079-097-107-
210040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CATAHOULA
CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL EVANGELINE
JEFFERSON DAVIS LA SALLE MADISON
RAPIDES ST. LANDRY TENSAS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC MD 2279
MD 2279 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 712... FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2279
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0847 PM CST MON NOV 20 2023
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 712...
VALID 210247Z - 210445Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 712 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI, WITH A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
THE SEVERE RISK MAY EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS
CURRENTLY STRETCH EAST-CENTRAL MS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST LA.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAIN FAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN CELLS THIS EVENING,
WITH EFFECTIVE SRH MAXIMIZED OVER CENTRAL MS CURRENTLY.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER 2 KM WILL CONTINUE TO AID
MOISTURE ADVECTION, WITH UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AL AHEAD OF THE ONGOING MS STORMS. A SOMEWHAT
STABLE AIR MASS EXISTS EAST OF A BATCH OF WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS NOW
FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST AL, AND THIS GENERAL ZONE MAY BE AS FAR EAST
AS THE MAIN SEVERE RISK GETS TONIGHT.
AS CELLS CONTINUE EAST ACROSS MS AND APPROACH THE AL STATE LINE,
ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE CONSIDERED.
..JEWELL.. 11/21/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 31389080 31788989 32128918 32448848 32428803 32258787
31668765 31318778 31048803 30738909 30669006 30669082
30809105 30979112 31139108 31389080
READ MORE
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SPC NOV 21, 2023 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST MON NOV 20 2023
VALID 210100Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
TORNADOES, A COUPLE OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG, SCATTERED DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WINDS, AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
...01Z UPDATE...
PRIMARY CHANGE TO 20Z OUTLOOK IS TO LOWER SEVERE PROBABILITIES ALONG
THE COOL SIDE OF THE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT.
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST KS CONTINUES ITS SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION TOWARD SOUTHERN MO. AS A RESULT, HIGH-LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE GULF STATES. THIS APPEARS PARTLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR A CORRIDOR OF SEVERE DEEP CONVECTION THAT CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN LA INTO CENTRAL MS. WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR,
SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE OBSERVED, AT LEAST A FEW OF THESE ARE
POTENTIALLY TORNADIC. 00Z SOUNDING FROM JAN EXHIBITED MODEST MLCAPE
(~800 J/KG) WITH VERY STRONG SURFACE-6KM SHEAR (70KT), AND 0-3KM SRH
AROUND 350 M2/S2. SOME ADDITIONAL AIR MASS RECOVERY IS EXPECTED
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO WESTERN AL AS PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY. WHILE THE PRIMARY
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH, SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF A
STRONG LLJ WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE
AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR OF SEVERE TO ADVANCE ACROSS MS INTO WESTERN
AL.
..DARROW.. 11/21/2023
READ MORE
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