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LU9DCE > ALERT 01.12.23 10:26l 80 Lines 3016 Bytes #204 (0) @ WW
BID : 2990_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 01-DEC23
Path: IW8PGT<I3XTY<I0OJJ<GB7CIP<KA1VSC<VE3CGR<KE6CHO<LU9DCE
Sent: 231201/0800Z 2990@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI DEC 1 02:46:01 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI DEC 1 02:46:01 UTC 2023.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI DEC 1 02:46:01 UTC 2023
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI DEC 1 02:46:01 UTC 2023.
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SPC DEC 1, 2023 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CST THU NOV 30 2023
VALID 010100Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS/TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. ISOLATED HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS.
...01Z UPDATE...
EARLY-EVENING WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, EJECTING NORTHEAST IN LINE
WITH EARLIER MODEL GUIDANCE. SEASONALLY COLD 500MB TEMPERATURES
(LESS THAN -20C) ARE SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN OK/NORTHWESTERN TX
WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO ELEVATED BUOYANCY FOR PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. 00Z SOUNDING FROM OUN EXHIBITED STEEP 3-6KM
LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE AROUND 400 J/KG. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE EJECTING
VORT/SHORT WAVE.
FARTHER SOUTHEAST ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST, DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS
BEGINNING TO VEER WHICH HAS SHUNTED THE PRIMARY ZONE OF CONFLUENCE
FOR DEEP CONVECTION JUST EAST OF THE HOUSTON METRO REGION. LATEST
RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THE MOST ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE NOTED ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY TOWARD GALVESTON BAY. THIS IS LIKELY
DUE TO HIGHER DEW POINTS/BUOYANCY ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. CURRENT THINKING IS WARM
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY INSTIGATOR IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ALONG THE UPPER TX/SOUTHWESTERN LA COAST TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN ZONE OF STRONG MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD WELL NORTH OF
THIS REGION. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WILL OCCUR WITH
NEAR-SURFACE-BASED STORMS IN PROXIMITY TO GREATER SRH, WHICH IS NOW
EAST OF HOUSTON. EVEN SO, THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
..DARROW.. 12/01/2023
READ MORE
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