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LU9DCE > ALERT 25.05.23 14:05l 220 Lines 8178 Bytes #13 (0) @ WW
BID : 750_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 25-MAY23
Path: IW8PGT<I3XTY<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 230525/1201Z 750@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU MAY 25 09:57:02 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU MAY 25 09:57:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU MAY 25 09:57:02 UTC 2023
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU MAY 25 09:57:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC MAY 25, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT THU MAY 25 2023
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
HIGHEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND ONTARIO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS RIDGING
WILL BE FLANKED ON EACH SIDE BY UPPER TROUGHING, WITH THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH SOUTHERN CA AND
THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER ME INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF. UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS A REX BLOCK WHILE THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGHING MAKES MODEST EASTWARD PROGRESS.
AT THE SURFACE, EXPANSIVE RIDGING WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS WHILE LEE TROUGHING EXTENDS THROUGHOUT THE HIGH PLAINS. MODEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES ACROSS
THE PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS. DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THROUGHOUT THE HIGH
PLAINS, WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE MAJORITY REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MODERATE BUOYANCY, WHILE DIURNAL
HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. MOST FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON, INTERACTING WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS
TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SHORTWAVE, HELPING TO SUPPORT 45-50 KT OF
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THIS COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY AND SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS,
INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO, DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
...CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A MINIMUM IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CO. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN WY INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN MT, AMID COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND IMPROVED
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. A MOSTLY OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORM MODE IS
ANTICIPATED, WITH SOME STRONG GUSTS POSSIBLE. SOME ISOLATED HAIL IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL. BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL SHEAR
IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST MT AND NORTHEAST WY,
POTENTIALLY FOSTERING HIGHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THAN
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.
..MOSIER.. 05/25/2023
READ MORE
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SPC MAY 25, 2023 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT THU MAY 25 2023
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH
PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION...
UPPER PATTERN WILL LIKELY FEATURE WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING AND AN
EASTERN CONUS REX BLOCK, WITH AN UPPER RIDGE FROM CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST, EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD, WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT A MODEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH, FROM UTAH INTO
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM FRIDAY, WITH
EXPANSIVE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND LEE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS, ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS OF DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF FRIDAY'S
STORMS. MUCH LIKE FRIDAY, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENOUGH
BUOYANCY AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR A SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.
ONE OR MORE CORRIDORS OF GREATER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ARE
POSSIBLE. ONE SUCH CORRIDOR IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHERE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST. ANOTHER CORRIDOR IS
ACROSS EASTERN WY AND VICINITY, WHERE A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR CAPPING PRECLUDES THE CONFIDENCE NEEDED TO DELINEATE
HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES WITH THIS OUTLOOK.
LASTLY, A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF THIS LOW, AND ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR ADVECTS
INLAND. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY RESULT IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
SCENARIOS ARE REALIZED, BUT UNCERTAINTY CURRENTLY PRECLUDES
OUTLOOKING AN AREA.
..MOSIER.. 05/25/2023
READ MORE
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SPC MAY 25, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT THU MAY 25 2023
VALID 281200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EASTERN
CONUS REX BLOCK IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD (D4/SUNDAY)
WILL BREAK DOWN BY D6/TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. A WEAK UPPER FLOW REGIME IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS AFTER THE BLOCKING BREAKS DOWN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE REPEATED PATTERN OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON D4/SUNDAY AND D5/MONDAY BUT
WILL LIKELY END WHEN THE BLOCKING ENDS. SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM
D6/TUESDAY INTO D8/THURSDAY APPEARS LOW GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK UPPER
FLOW AND LACK OF ANY NOTABLE SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 AM CDT THU MAY 25 2023
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY BENEATH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
WEST COAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY REDUCTIONS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS WILL BE POSSIBLE AMID SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 15-20 MPH. THE
BEST OVERLAP OF DRIEST FUELS AND DRY/WINDY METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.
SOME CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO. UNCERTAINTY ON THE STATE OF FUELS AND DURATION OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN INTRODUCING A CRITICAL
DELINEATION AT THIS TIME. AS SUCH, AN ELEVATED AREA HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR THIS UPDATE.
..THORNTON.. 05/25/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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