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LU9DCE > ALERT 15.01.24 10:08l 117 Lines 3957 Bytes #248 (0) @ WW
BID : 5241_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 15-JAN24
Path: IW8PGT<I3XTY<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 240115/0800Z 5241@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON JAN 15 01:16:02 UTC 2024
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON JAN 15 01:16:02 UTC 2024.
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SPC MD 66
MD 0066 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR EAST TX...NORTHWEST
LA...SOUTHERN AR...AND NORTHERN MS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0066
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TX...NORTHWEST LA...SOUTHERN AR...AND NORTHERN
MS
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 150048Z - 150545Z
SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM
PORTIONS OF EAST TX EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
DISCUSSION...OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, A BAND OF LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TX THROUGH SOUTHERN AR INTO
NORTHERN MS IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE. ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE, THE ASCENDING
BRANCH OF THE FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION AND STEADY LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. RADAR ECHOES ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THIS
CORRIDOR AMID COOLING CLOUD TOPS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY DEPICT A 2-4 DEG C WARM NOSE JUST BELOW
850 MB ATOP A SUBSTANTIAL SUB-FREEZING LAYER (SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER/MIDDLE 20S). THESE PROFILES SHOULD
SUPPORT A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
WITH THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO SLEET
GIVEN AN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SUB-FREEZING LAYER AND NOCTURNALLY COOLING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA (EAST-CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN LA),
WHERE A 4-6 DEG C WARM NOSE ATOP A SHALLOWER SUB-FREEZING LAYER MAY
FAVOR INCREASING HYDROMETEOR MELTING AND FREEZING RAIN.
NEVERTHELESS, THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS FROM THE MIXED WINTER
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE 02-06Z TIME FRAME.
..WEINMAN.. 01/15/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 30979415 30739472 30989525 31289558 32249571 32979551
33579493 33939418 34319227 34729040 34898949 34918850
34768829 34338823 34068862 33528961 32719140 31969268
30979415
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SPC JAN 15, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2024
VALID 150100Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS LOW ACROSS THE CONUS TONIGHT; ALTHOUGH A
FLASH OF LIGHTNING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA.
...SOUTH FL...
WEAK WARM ADVECTION APPEARS MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR SHALLOW
CONVECTION CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FL AND ADJACENT
OFFSHORE REGIONS, THOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED ALONG A
BOUNDARY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE COAST. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM KEY AND MFL
EXHIBIT POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WEAK BUOYANCY MAY ALLOW A FEW UPDRAFTS TO APPROACH LEVELS NECESSARY
FOR LIGHTNING DISCHARGE. THUNDER POTENTIAL IS LOW, BUT A FLASH OR
TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
..DARROW.. 01/15/2024
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