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LU9DCE > ALERT 03.02.24 10:07l 230 Lines 7648 Bytes #268 (0) @ WW
BID : 6203_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 03-FEB24
Path: IW8PGT<I3XTY<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 240203/0800Z 6203@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 13
WW 13 SEVERE TSTM TX 022330Z - 030600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 13
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
530 PM CST FRI FEB 2 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM 530 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU VICINITIES THIS
EVENING.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST
OF HONDO TX TO 100 MILES NORTH OF ABILENE TX. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
25025.
...GUYER
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 13 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0013 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 13
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW DRT
TO 50 NE DRT TO 40 NE JCT TO 15 ENE BWD TO 25 WSW MWL TO 10 SSE
SPS TO 25 WSW FSI.
..JEWELL..02/03/24
ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 13
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-077-091-093-099-123-127-137-143-
163-171-177-187-193-209-237-255-259-265-267-271-281-299-319-323-
325-333-363-385-411-453-463-491-493-507-030440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BANDERA BASTROP
BEXAR BLANCO BURNET
CALDWELL CLAY COMAL
COMANCHE CORYELL DEWITT
DIMMIT EDWARDS ERATH
FRIO GILLESPIE GONZALES
GUADALUPE HAMILTON HAYS
JACK KARNES KENDALL
KERR KIMBLE KINNEY
LAMPASAS LLANO MASON
MAVERICK MEDINA MILLS
PALO PINTO REAL SAN SABA
TRAVIS UVALDE WILLIAMSON
WILSON ZAVALA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
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SPC MD 101
MD 0101 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 13... FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0812 PM CST FRI FEB 02 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 13...
VALID 030212Z - 030415Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 13
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A DAMAGING WIND AND
MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS THEY MOVE ACROSS REMAINING PARTS OF WW 13.
THE THREAT AREA MAY INCLUDE A FEW ADJACENT COUNTIES EAST OF THE
EXISTING WATCH.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STORMS AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT HAVE
CONSOLIDATED INTO TWO MAIN CLUSTERS, BOTH SHOWING SIGNS OF EITHER
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL NEAR 1.00". SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DIFFUSE THETA-E GRADIENT NORTH OF CRP AND EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE FRIO/LA SALLE COUNTY CLUSTER, WHILE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
THE SAN ANTONIO AREA, SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE COOLER BUT STILL
UNSTABLE.
GIVEN THE ONGOING SUBSTANTIAL STORM CLUSTERS, DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO SUSTAIN
THE ONGOING CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE THETA-E GRADIENT.
EXPECTED COVERAGE OF SEVERE OUTSIDE THE WATCH IS NOT FORECAST TO
NECESSITATE A NEW WATCH, THOUGH A FEW SEVERE REPORTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
..JEWELL.. 02/03/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 27799985 28319954 28729955 29559916 29919907 30119918
30319890 30379835 30479764 30189711 28849702 28099722
27859757 27599950 27679969 27799985
READ MORE
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SPC FEB 3, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST FRI FEB 02 2024
VALID 030100Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO AND EAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND
WIND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT.
...01Z UPDATE...
DESPITE THE INITIALLY MODEST NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTENING, DAYTIME HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MIXED-LAYER CAPE
RANGING FROM 500-1500 J/KG, FOCUSED JUST TO THE EAST OF SLOWLY
DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGHING FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO THE
RIO GRANDE WEST OF DEL RIO. GENERALLY NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING, CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG
THIS CORRIDOR, PRECEDED BY ADDITIONAL MORE DISCRETE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY.
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF A LINE, ROUGHLY FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TOWARD
THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS RATHER
MODEST, WITH INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER PARCELS ALSO ALREADY
INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER,
WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEW POINTS SLOWLY CONTINUING TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE LOWER/MID 60S F ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS, THERE
MAY BE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS MID/UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND COOLING ALOFT
CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT.
SOME FURTHER INCREASE AND INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION STILL
APPEARS POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT, WHERE SHEAR AND
PERHAPS BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN. THIS MAY INCLUDE AN
ORGANIZING CLUSTER OR LINE POSING A RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.
..KERR.. 02/03/2024
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