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LU9DCE > ALERT 31.05.23 14:05l 308 Lines 11497 Bytes #19 (0) @ WW
BID : 1030_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 31-MAY23
Path: IW8PGT<I3XTY<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 230531/1200Z 1030@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED MAY 31 08:47:02 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED MAY 31 08:47:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED MAY 31 08:47:02 UTC 2023
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED MAY 31 08:47:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC MAY 31, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT WED MAY 31 2023
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...
...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ARE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT WILL MOVE EAST TO THE FOUR
CORNERS DURING PERIOD. A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS
OF THE EAST WHILE A WEAKENING RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
OK BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY EXTEND WESTWARD FROM OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND
PERHAPS INTO NORTHEAST NM. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, A SEASONABLY
MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS, FEATURING 50S TO LOWER 60S DEG F DEWPOINTS,
WILL BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY MID AFTERNOON
(1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE). SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS (30-40 KT AT 500 MB) AND ELONGATE HODOGRAPHS ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE RISKS, BUT A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE WHERE MOISTURE IS LOCALLY
HIGHER WITH AN ESTABLISHED SUPERCELL. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR
MORE SMALL CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND
TX PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENS BY LATE
EVENING.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE BLACK HILLS...
CONSIDERABLY WEAKER MID TO UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST FARTHER NORTH OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST OVER EASTERN CO (LOCAL MINIMUM
IN STORM COVERAGE) PERHAPS COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH OVER THE NE
PANHANDLE AND BLACK HILLS VICINITY. REGARDLESS, STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL FAVOR STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES.
AN ISOLATED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
..SMITH/WENDT.. 05/31/2023
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SPC MAY 31, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT WED MAY 31 2023
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS VICINITY...
CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF
CONVECTION IN THE DAY 1/WED PERIOD. EARLY CONVECTION, ALONG WITH ANY
OUTFLOW FROM DAY 1/WED ACTIVITY, MAY INHIBIT STRONGER AIRMASS
RECOVERY. BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, THOUGH SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD MAINTAIN MID/UPPER 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION (1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE) DESPITE MUTED SURFACE HEATING.
A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
KS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WHILE MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS VICINITY PIVOTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST, BUT VERTICALLY VEERING
PROFILES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AROUND 25 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES.
SHEAR MAGNITUDES MAY ALSO BE LOCALLY AUGMENTED BY ANY MCV THAT MAY
RESIDE OVER THE REGION, AGAIN TIED TO CONVECTION IN THE DAY 1/WED
PERIOD. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP BY
MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH
PLAINS VICINITY.
GIVEN A WEAKER THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS,
AND EXPECTED MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR, SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
MORE CONDITIONAL COMPARED TO OTHER RECENT DAYS. NEVERTHELESS, A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG GUSTS AND HAIL SEEM
POSSIBLE. WHILE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK,
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IN THE
VICINITY OF OUTFLOW OR REMNANT MCV FROM THE DAY 1/WED PERIOD, AND A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE INITIAL DAY
2/THU OUTLOOK. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN A CORRIDOR OF GREATER
SEVERE POTENTIAL, AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) MAY BE
NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
..LEITMAN.. 05/31/2023
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SPC MAY 31, 2023 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT WED MAY 31 2023
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL,
STRONG GUSTS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS VICINITY...
A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. STRONGER
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW COMPARED TO RECENT EVENTS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NM INTO WEST TX, WITH 40-50 KT AT
500 MB. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE
VERTICALLY VEERING PROFILES, RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE-SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40+ KT. THIS WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH AT LEAST
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN WITH
NORTHWARD EXTENT TOWARD THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND EASTERN CO/WESTERN
KS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN MID 60S F (LOW 60S FURTHER NORTH) BENEATH A
PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FOSTER STRONG
DESTABILIZATION, AND A CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 2000-3000
J/KG IS EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS LOWER, GIVEN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST CO/WESTERN KS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
LEADING INTO FRIDAY. FURTHERMORE, WEAKER SHEAR WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT
SUGGESTS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOWER COMPARED TO FURTHER SOUTH.
CURRENTLY, THE BEST OVERLAP OF MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND STRONGER
INSTABILITY, ALONG WITH AN ASSIST VIA LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OFFERED BY
THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED FROM SOUTHEAST
NM INTO THE SOUTHWEST TX VICINITY. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR, WITH INITIAL SUPERCELLS POSSIBLY
GROWING UPSCALE INTO FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTERS OR A BOWING MCS
DURING THE EVENING AS A LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES.
..LEITMAN.. 05/31/2023
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SPC MAY 31, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT WED MAY 31 2023
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
TX THROUGH DAYS 4-5/SAT-SUN AS A WEAK MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL JET
SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SEASONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE, AND AREAS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE LIKELY
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN THROUGH SOUTHERN TX. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN
15 PERCENT OR GREATER COVERAGE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE, PREDICTABILITY BECOMES LOW DURING THE DAY 6-8/MON-WED
TIME PERIOD. FORECAST GUIDANCE EVOLVES AN EASTERN UPPER TROUGH VERY
DIFFERENTLY. BUT IN GENERAL, MEAN TROUGHING IN THE EAST AND WEST
SEEMS LIKELY, THOUGH AMPLITUDE AND LONGITUDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS
UNCLEAR. BETWEEN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN MEAN TROUGHS, A
LOW-AMPLITUDE, RATHER NONDESCRIPT FLOW REGIME WILL ENCOMPASS THE
MIDDLE THIRD OF THE CONUS.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT WED MAY 31 2023
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. BY THE AFTERNOON, RH
OF 10-15% WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN
NEW MEXICO. A ZONE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
WITHIN WESTERN NEW MEXICO, WHICH WILL HAVE A MORE FAVORABLE OVERLAP
OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DRIER FUELS.
HERE SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. SURROUNDING AREAS WILL
SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH RH OF 10-20% AND LIGHTER
WINDS OF 15-20 MPH.
..WENDT.. 05/31/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT WED MAY 31 2023
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
THOUGH THE SOUTHWEST UPPER TROUGH WILL LOSE AMPLITUDE ON THURSDAY,
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND EXTREME WEST TEXAS. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL
A BIT LESS FOCUSED THAT ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH SOME WEEK TROUGHING IS
EXPECTED IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. RH WILL AGAIN
FALL TO 10-20% ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS MAY EXTEND INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ELEVATED AREA MAY OCCUR DEPENDING ON
RAINFALL OBSERVATIONS.
..WENDT.. 05/31/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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