| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 11.03.25 11:35l 122 Lines 4376 Bytes #365 (0) @ WW
BID : 7093_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 11-MAR25
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<DK0WUE<K7EK<VE3CGR<K1AJD<VK2RZ<LU9DCE
Sent: 250311/1030Z 7093@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2025 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
SESSION - 05E9490351ED5441879F64AAD986F3A16DDA2EDD4C40392E1484F4428A72D9DA6D
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE MAR 11 05:52:01 UTC 2025
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE MAR 11 05:52:01 UTC 2025.
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE MAR 11 05:52:01 UTC 2025
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE MAR 11 05:52:01 UTC 2025.
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC MAR 11, 2025 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2025
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND INTO ARIZONA TODAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
...DISCUSSION...
AS AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS A SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES, AS A SECOND LOW SHIFTS INLAND OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA, AND GRADUALLY PROGRESSES INTO
ARIZONA/NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.
AS THIS SYSTEM ADVANCES, AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN, SHOWERS
AND OCCASIONAL/EMBEDDED LIGHTNING WILL SPREAD INLAND, AFFECTING
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE DAY, AND ACROSS THE COLORADO VALLEY
INTO ARIZONA OVERNIGHT. WEAK BUOYANCY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK.
..GOSS/SQUITIERI.. 03/11/2025
READ MORE
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC MAR 11, 2025 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2025
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN
TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, SOUTHERN ARKANSAS, NORTHERN
LOUISIANA, AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
...SOUTHEAST OK/ARKLATEX INTO WESTERN MS...
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS EAST FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
AFTERNOON, AND THE SOUTH BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE STRONGER JET
STREAK WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS, THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE BROADER 50-60 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE
ARKLATEX REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE, A MODEST
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL OK BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A
DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MODEST, WITH MAINLY 50S F
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OK INTO AR. NEAR-60 F DEWPOINTS
MAY APPROACH THE RED RIVER, BUT OVERALL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SHALLOW
AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BECOME WELL-MIXED. NEVERTHELESS,
SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES WILL BE PRESENT AND COOLING ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL FOSTER MLCAPE VALUES
TO AROUND 1500 J/KG.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAIN REGARDING STORM COVERAGE. NOTABLY, THE NAM
MAINTAINS QUITE STRONG CAPPING, WHILE THE HRRR, RAP, GFS AND ECMWF
GUIDANCE ARE MORE SUBDUED (OR FULLY ERODE ANY CAPPING). A SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN ADDED NEAR THE DRYLINE, CLOSE TO THE SURFACE TRIPLE
POINT WHERE DEEPER, SUSTAINED CONVECTION APPEARS MOST LIKELY. GIVEN
AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETER SPACE, LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS ARE THE
MOST PROBABLE STORM HAZARDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
..LEITMAN.. 03/11/2025
READ MORE
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
ARGEN-X BBS FIDONET - TELNET ARGENX.KOZOW.COM PORT 23000
HYPERTEXT PREPROCESSOR - DEVELOPED BY LU9DCE - VERSION 3
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
