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LU9DCE > ALERT 15.04.25 06:34l 412 Lines 13319 Bytes #355 (0) @ WW
BID : 383_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 14-APR25
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 250415/0430Z 383@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 139
WW 139 SEVERE TSTM VA WV 142250Z - 150500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 139
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
650 PM EDT MON APR 14 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 650 PM
UNTIL 100 AM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING
WHILE POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO 1-2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER. SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH ANY CLUSTERS THAT CAN FORM WHILE ALSO
SPREADING QUICKLY EASTWARD.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF
STAUNTON VA TO 35 MILES NORTH OF RICHMOND VA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 138...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
28045.
...GLEASON
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138
WW 138 SEVERE TSTM KY OH PA VA WV 141925Z - 150300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 138
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
325 PM EDT MON APR 14 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHERN OHIO
FAR SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA
WEST VIRGINIA
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 325 PM UNTIL
1100 PM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. AN INITIALLY CELLULAR MODE WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING GUSTS BEFORE A TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE
FAVORS PRIMARILY DAMAGING GUSTS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF
LEXINGTON KY TO 60 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS
WV. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
24040.
...MOSIER
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 139 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0139 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS FOR WATCH 0139 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0138 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 138
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW LEX TO
20 NW JKL TO 25 NNE JKL TO 20 E HTS TO 30 ENE CRW TO 20 SSW EKN
TO 20 ESE EKN TO 40 E EKN.
..BENTLEY..04/15/25
ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...RLX...ILN...PBZ...RNK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 138
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC019-025-051-063-065-071-109-115-119-125-127-129-131-133-153-
159-175-189-193-195-197-199-203-237-150140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOYD BREATHITT CLAY
ELLIOTT ESTILL FLOYD
JACKSON JOHNSON KNOTT
LAUREL LAWRENCE LEE
LESLIE LETCHER MAGOFFIN
MARTIN MORGAN OWSLEY
PERRY PIKE POWELL
PULASKI ROCKCASTLE WOLFE
VAC005-009-011-017-021-023-027-029-045-051-071-121-155-161-163-
185-530-580-678-750-770-775-150140-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHANY AMHERST APPOMATTOX
BATH BLAND BOTETOURT
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SPC MD 452
MD 0452 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 139... FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VIRGINIA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0452
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 139...
VALID 150040Z - 150215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 139
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL EXIST ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF WW 139 IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA.
FARTHER NORTH, ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY BE
WITHIN PARTS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA THIS EVENING. A SUPERCELL CURRENTLY
IN NELSON COUNTY WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THIS LEAD SUPERCELL HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO MOVE MORE EAST-NORTHEAST
THE LAST HALF HOUR, SUGGESTING IT MAY BE TRANSITIONING TO BEING
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. EVEN SO, MRMS DATA SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL IS
OCCURRING. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE TRAINING BEHIND THE
LEAD SUPERCELL AND WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.
IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA, TEMPERATURES HAVE DIABATICALLY COOLED AS BROAD
AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY STILL REMAINS AND THE KRLX VAD SHOWED 35-45 KTS OF FLOW
BEHIND THE PASSING CONVECTION. WITH THE DULLES 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING
SHOWING 7 C/KM LAPSE RATES AND A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER, A
STRONG/DAMAGING GUST COULD STILL OCCUR WHERE ANY CONVECTIVE CORES
DEVELOP.
..WENDT.. 04/15/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
LAT...LON 37828011 38817934 39067924 39127892 38897781 38797749
38417729 37537725 37427730 37307752 37207799 37237843
37658017 37828011
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
READ MORE
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SPC MD 451
MD 0451 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138... FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...AND FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0451
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0718 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...AND FAR
WESTERN VIRGINIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138...
VALID 150018Z - 150145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA
HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST HOUR, BUT ARE STILL CAPABLE OF SOME LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL LIKELY BE WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST
WHERE A DEEPLY-MIXED AIRMASS IS PRESENT WITH GREATER INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER, EVEN IN THIS AREA THE THREAT WILL LIKELY ONLY PERSIST FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
..BENTLEY.. 04/15/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...
LAT...LON 37278519 37788380 38008289 38578182 38457979 37977916
37357993 37098212 36998474 37008512 37278519
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
READ MORE
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SPC APR 15, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
VALID 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC, WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RIDGE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AND A TROUGH IN THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. A PLUME OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TROUGH ALONG
A FETCH OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH IS LOCATED IN THE LEE
OF THE APPALACHIANS, WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 50S F, AND INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH
MLCAPE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE, ANALYZED BY THE RAP. WITHIN
THIS POCKET OF WEAK INSTABILITY, SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING
FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WEST VIRGINIA, AND WESTERN VIRGINIA. AT
500 MB, A BROAD BELT OF 60 TO 80 KNOTS OF FLOW IS LOCATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY, WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THIS SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT THIS
EVENING. THE MORE INTENSE DISCRETE CELLS COULD BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH
A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE. IF A SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENT CAN
ORGANIZE, THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD
INCREASE...SEE MCDS 451 AND 452.
..BROYLES.. 04/15/2025
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SPC DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
VALID 161200Z - 221200Z
A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. ALONG WITH A
MARKED INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
MULTI-DAY FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM DAY 3/WEDNESDAY
THROUGH DAY 5/FRIDAY, POTENTIALLY INTO DAY 6/SATURDAY.
LEE CYCLONE FORMATION IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PROMOTE ACCELERATING WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
AND MUCH OF NEW MEXICO ON DAY 3/WEDNESDAY. A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
AND DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. A 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED TO REFLECT
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND OVERALL INCREASED CONFIDENCE.
BY DAY 4/THURSDAY, THE TROUGH PATTERN AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WEST
WHILE A MID-LEVEL JET MAX TRANSLATES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS ALLOWED FOR INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE REGION,
ALBEIT SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD FROM THE DAY 3 THREAT. 70 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO. ENHANCED
DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AMID RECEPTIVE CARRYOVER
FUELS AND DRY SURFACE LAYER PROMPTED EXPANSION OF THE 70 PERCENT
AREA INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS
PANHANDLES FOR DAY 4.
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE WEST SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTRODUCING
CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW INTO PORTIONS THE SOUTHWEST, MAINLY NORTH OF
THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY LATE WEEK. HOWEVER, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COULD
LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.
..WILLIAMS/MOORE.. 04/14/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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