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LU9DCE > ALERT 01.05.24 10:33l 514 Lines 15507 Bytes #364 (0) @ WW
BID : 9032_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 01-MAY24
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 240501/0700Z 9032@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 168
WW 168 TORNADO OK TX 010325Z - 010500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 168
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM 1025 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS NEAR THE RED RIVER MAY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A RISK FOR TORNADOES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 25 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH OF WICHITA FALLS TX TO
15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS TX. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF
THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 164...WW 166...WW 167...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 29015.
...SMITH
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 167
WW 167 SEVERE TSTM OK 010145Z - 010500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 167
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM 845 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A BAND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PROGRESS
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. SEVERE GUSTS AND ASSOCIATED WIND DAMAGE
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS ACCOMPANYING THIS THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST
OF BARTLESVILLE OK TO 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF TULSA OK. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 163...WW 164...WW
165...WW 166...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
29030.
...SMITH
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 165
WW 165 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 302135Z - 010200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 165
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
435 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 435 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING NEAR AND
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PROBABLY
BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AND POSE A RISK FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL
AND SEVERE GUSTS. A NARROW WINDOW OF TIME MAY EXIST FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO TOWARDS THE EARLY EVENING MAINLY OVER THE OKLAHOMA PORTION
OF THE WATCH.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PONCA CITY OK TO 130 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ALTUS OK. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 163...WW 164...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
24020.
...SMITH
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 168 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0168 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS FOR WATCH 0168 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 167 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0167 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 167
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0585
..THORNTON..05/01/24
ATTN...WFO...TSA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 167
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC035-037-097-105-113-117-131-143-145-147-010340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAIG CREEK MAYES
NOWATA OSAGE PAWNEE
ROGERS TULSA WAGONER
WASHINGTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 166 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0166 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 166
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S IRK TO
20 N CDJ TO 15 ESE LWD.
..SPC..05/01/24
ATTN...WFO...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 166
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC001-079-115-121-129-171-197-211-010340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR GRUNDY LINN
MACON MERCER PUTNAM
SCHUYLER SULLIVAN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 165 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0165 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 165
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0581
..THORNTON..05/01/24
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 165
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC003-011-015-017-031-039-043-047-053-055-065-071-073-075-083-
093-103-141-149-151-010240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BLAINE CADDO
CANADIAN COMANCHE CUSTER
DEWEY GARFIELD GRANT
GREER JACKSON KAY
KINGFISHER KIOWA LOGAN
MAJOR NOBLE TILLMAN
WASHITA WOODS
TXC023-155-197-207-263-269-275-433-447-485-487-010240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAYLOR FOARD HARDEMAN
HASKELL KENT KING
KNOX STONEWALL THROCKMORTON
WICHITA WILBARGER
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 164 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0164 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 164
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW ICT
TO 30 ENE ICT TO 10 E EMP TO 15 E TOP TO 35 W LWD.
..SPC..05/01/24
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 164
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-003-015-019-031-035-045-049-059-073-077-087-133-191-205-
207-010140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON BUTLER
CHAUTAUQUA COFFEY COWLEY
DOUGLAS ELK FRANKLIN
GREENWOOD HARPER JEFFERSON
NEOSHO SUMNER WILSON
WOODSON
MOC075-227-010140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GENTRY WORTH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 163 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0163 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 163
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W LWD TO
50 ESE FOD.
..SPC..05/01/24
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...FSD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 163
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-039-051-053-083-099-117-121-123-125-127-135-153-157-159-
169-171-179-181-185-010140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE CLARKE DAVIS
DECATUR HARDIN JASPER
LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA
MARION MARSHALL MONROE
POLK POWESHIEK RINGGOLD
STORY TAMA WAPELLO
WARREN WAYNE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED MAY 1 03:55:05 UTC 2024
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED MAY 1 03:55:05 UTC 2024.
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SPC MAY 1, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2024
VALID 010100Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS, CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL (POSSIBLY ABOVE 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER), DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
...CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1002 MB LOW OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA,
WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MAXIMIZED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NEAR THE
LOW SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN KANSAS. THE RAP HAS MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE
1500 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
ONGOING ALONG AND NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
OZARKS THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY, WSR-88D VWPS
NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE.
WITHIN THIS AREA, RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES ARE IN THE 7 TO 7.5 C/KM RANGE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WAS ALSO EVIDENT ON THE
WSR-88D VWPS SUGGESTING A FEW TORNADOES COULD DEVELOP. SEVERE WIND
GUSTS ALSO COULD OCCUR WITH SUPERCELLS OR SHORT LINE SEGMENTS. THE
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING,
BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED AND MARGINAL, ESPECIALLY TOWARD LATE
EVENING.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, A MOIST AIRMASS EXISTS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING TO THE EAST OF A DRYLINE, NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MOIST
AIRMASS, FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS. THE 00Z
SOUNDINGS AT NORMAN AND MIDLAND ARE SHOWING MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO
3500 J/KG RANGE. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW MODERATE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR GENERALLY
IN THE 40 TO 45 KNOT RANGE. THIS, ALONG WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7.5 C/KM, WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING, WITH
A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT COULD CONTINUE IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING, AS A CAP
BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
...MID-ATLANTIC TO FAR SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND...
THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWESTERN
NEW JERSEY. THIS CLUSTER WAS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF A 1009 MB
LOW, ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A POCKET OF MAXIMIZED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. WITHIN THIS POCKET, SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S F, AN MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 250 TO 500 J/KG
RANGE, ACCORDING TO THE RAP. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD WEAK, AS
IT MOVES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST THIS EVENING. A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..BROYLES.. 05/01/2024
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