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LU9DCE > ALERT 05.06.23 14:00l 367 Lines 14698 Bytes #24 (0) @ WW
BID : 1265_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 05-JUN23
Path: IW8PGT<I3XTY<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 230605/1200Z 1265@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON JUN 5 09:02:01 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON JUN 5 09:02:01 UTC 2023.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON JUN 5 09:02:01 UTC 2023
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON JUN 5 09:02:01 UTC 2023.
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SPC JUN 5, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT MON JUN 05 2023
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...AND WESTERN MONTANA...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, AND WESTERN
MONTANA. BOTH OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE.
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MEANDER ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE AS A
SECOND UPPER TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. ADEQUATE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE SOUTHEAST AMID WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW,
ENCOURAGING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST SCATTERED PULSE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN
ADEQUATE BUOYANCY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS, A SPARSE SEVERE GUST
OR INSTANCE OF LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER, EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BROAD AREA ENCOMPASSING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ARE A FEW REGIONS
WHERE ORGANIZED ROUNDS OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE.
...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE, EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH, WILL GRAZE THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY THIS TIME, ADEQUATE
BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING WILL SUPPORT 70+ F SURFACE TEMPERATURES AMID
LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS AND 6.5-7.5 LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
CONTRIBUTING TO 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. MODEST SPEED SHEAR ABOVE 700
MB WILL ENCOURAGE SOMEWHAT ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS, WHICH MAY PROMOTE A
FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND LONGER-LIVED SINGLE CELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE GUSTS.
...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...
AN MCV IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHERN TX THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN TANDEM WITH SURFACE HEATING. WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT FORECAST TO BECOME PARTICULARLY STEEP, 6-7 C/KM TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES ATOP MID 80S/LOW 70S F SURFACE TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 2500-3500 J/KG SBCAPE. FURTHERMORE, SOME
VEERING/STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT TO THE RIGHT OF THE MCV
TRAJECTORY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ELONGATED AND CURVED HODOGRAPHS.
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREATS, THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
...WESTERN MONTANA...
A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL GRAZE WESTERN MT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
MODEST, 7-8 C/KM LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
TALL, THIN MLCAPE OVER 1500 J/KG. WHILE TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL, ADEQUATE SPEED SHEAR WILL PROMOTE
ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS, SUPPORTING SOME LONGER-LIVED, ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE GUST/HAIL THREAT.
..SQUITIERI/GOSS.. 06/05/2023
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SPC JUN 5, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON JUN 05 2023
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SIERRAS/GREAT BASIN...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND NORTHEASTERN
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SIERRAS/GREAT BASIN, SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AND
NORTHEASTERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA.
...SYNOPSIS...
A STAGNANT UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS ON TUESDAY,
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL
CANADA. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER CA, WITH A SEPARATE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES.
...SIERRAS/GREAT BASIN...
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRAS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AS MODEST
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A UPPER LOW OVER CA OVERSPREADS THIS
AREA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED, BUT DIURNAL
MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CORRESPONDING STEEPENING OF
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ENCOURAGE EFFICIENT CONVECTIVE
DOWNDRAFT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE. 25-35 KT OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD ACT TO ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE ROBUST CORES AS THEY SPREAD GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. OCCASIONAL HAIL MAY
ALSO OCCUR WITH THE INITIALLY MORE DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE
CLUSTERING OCCURS.
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
ON TUESDAY. EVEN WITH THIS REGION BENEATH MID-LEVEL RIDGING, MOST
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN NM AND WEST TX. AROUND 20-30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IS FORECAST, MAINLY OWING TO MODESTLY STRENGTHENING FLOW AT
MID/UPPER LEVELS. WHILE THIS SHEAR APPEARS MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION, OCCASIONAL INSTANCES OF HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH INITIAL
ROBUST CORES, AS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE PRESENT. SOME
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
EARLY EVENING. WITH STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM DAYTIME
HEATING, ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS EVENTUALLY WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.
...SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT FROM NORTHERN GA INTO SC. THIS REGION WILL
BE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE TROUGH/FRONT, BUT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY MODEST. EVEN SO, ANY
CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS IT SPREADS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. POOR LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND WEAK ASCENT ALOFT CAST SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OVERALL
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
...NORTHEAST...
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER
LOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST. THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM ACROSS
PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD COULD
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE-CALIBER GUSTS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY WIND
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
...SOUTH FLORIDA...
MODESTLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BE
PRESENT OVER SOUTH FL ON TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SUB-TROPICAL
JET. EVEN THOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN NEBULOUS, MOST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG VARIOUS SEA BREEZES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.
..GLEASON.. 06/05/2023
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SPC JUN 5, 2023 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON JUN 05 2023
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTH
CAROLINA VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST, SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, AND SOUTH CAROLINA VICINITY.
...SYNOPSIS...
A QUASI-OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER CA AND THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN, UPPER RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS, AND ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH/LOW PERSISTING OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN STATES.
...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO OREGON/IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA...
SIMILAR TO DAY 2/TUESDAY, THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIALLY DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN CA DUE TO OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES
AND WEAK ASCENT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW. WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
FORECAST, SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER
EAST INTO OR/ID AND PARTS OF WESTERN MT. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER LIMITED, SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL FORECAST. 20-30 KT OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE MODEST UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
AS THEY SPREAD GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME. SOME HAIL
COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT.
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN NM AND WEST TX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WEAK
UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST, MODESTLY ENHANCED MID/UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS THIS REGION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SUB-TROPICAL JET. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
GENERALLY RANGE AROUND 20-30 KT, PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WEAKER TOWARDS
CO/KS. LOOSELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS SPREADING EASTWARD
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
SEVERE GUSTS AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY.
OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS
OF WEST TX WHERE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER.
...SOUTH CAROLINA VICINITY...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT SHOULD BE DRAPED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST. A SEASONABLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE IN
PLACE ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
DEVELOP IN A NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS PARTS OF GA INTO SC AND FAR
SOUTHERN/COASTAL NC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGER MID-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD BE PRESENT, BUT WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY CASTS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. STILL, HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES WHERE MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ROBUST CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP.
..GLEASON.. 06/05/2023
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SPC JUN 5, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT MON JUN 05 2023
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON DAY 4/THURSDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE A MORE ORGANIZED
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD AND HELP ERODE PERSISTENT UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES FROM THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ALSO FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
IN THIS TIME FRAME. THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM DAY 5/FRIDAY ONWARD ACROSS THESE
AREAS AS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR STRENGTHENS, AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RELATED INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASE. BUT, THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS UNCERTAIN, LEADING TO LOW
PREDICTABILITY.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 AM CDT MON JUN 05 2023
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
THE BACKSIDE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST WHILE A SECOND
UPPER TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY. OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA INTO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO, MODEST FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADING A
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENCOURAGE 15 MPH SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS AMID 10-15 PERCENT RH, WARRANTING ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS.
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE WIND SPEEDS MAY
BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS, THE DRY AIR
OVERSPREADING FUELS THAT ARE RELATIVELY DEVOID OF RECENT RAINFALL
MAY PROMOTE LOCALIZED WILDFIRE-SPREAD CONCERNS.
..SQUITIERI.. 06/05/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 AM CDT MON JUN 05 2023
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER PATTERN FOR TOMORROW/TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO DAY
1, WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHS MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL SUPPORT 15 MPH
SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS COINCIDING WITH 10-15 PERCENT
RH FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WARRANTING ELEVATED
HIGHLIGHTS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA INTO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO.
DRY NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL OCCUR YET AGAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE NORTHEAST. STILL, FORECAST SURFACE WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TOO
LOW TO ADDRESS WITH FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THIS OUTLOOK, WITH
WILDFIRE-SPREAD POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALIZED.
..SQUITIERI.. 06/05/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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