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LU9DCE > ALERT 24.04.25 09:44l 434 Lines 13050 Bytes #364 (0) @ WW
BID : 953_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 24-APR25
Path: IW8PGT<HB9CSR<IK6IHL<IK7NXU<HB9ON<DK0WUE<PI8ZTM<VK2IO<VK2RZ<LU9DCE
Sent: 250424/0730Z 953@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 164
WW 164 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 232230Z - 240500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 164
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
530 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 530 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...RELATIVELY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH
EARLY/MID-EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES, BUT POTENTIALLY ALSO ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS.
THESE STORMS MAY REACH OTHER PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATER THIS
EVENING.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST
OF GUYMON OK TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK TX. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 162...WW 163...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
24020.
...GUYER
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 163
WW 163 SEVERE TSTM CO KS 232050Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 163
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO
WESTERN KANSAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM
UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA, WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS
POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN, HOWEVER A TORNADO OR
TWO COULD OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF
GOODLAND KS TO 5 MILES EAST OF ELKHART KS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION
OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 162...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
26030.
...HART
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 164 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0164 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 164
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0535
..DEAN..04/24/25
ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 164
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-045-059-139-240240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER ELLIS HARPER
TEXAS
TXC011-045-065-069-075-087-101-107-117-125-129-153-169-179-189-
191-195-205-211-219-233-263-269-279-295-303-305-341-345-357-359-
369-375-381-393-421-433-437-445-483-240240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON
CASTRO CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH
COTTLE CROSBY DEAF SMITH
DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD
GARZA GRAY HALE
HALL HANSFORD HARTLEY
HEMPHILL HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON
KENT KING LAMB
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 163 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0163 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 163
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW ITR TO
20 SW GLD TO 55 NNW GCK TO 25 ESE HLC.
..SQUITIERI..04/24/25
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 163
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-017-061-063-099-240240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA CHEYENNE KIOWA
KIT CARSON PROWERS
KSC055-057-067-069-071-075-081-083-093-101-119-129-135-171-175-
187-189-195-199-203-240240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FINNEY FORD GRANT
GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON
HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY
LANE MEADE MORTON
NESS SCOTT SEWARD
STANTON STEVENS TREGO
WALLACE WICHITA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 162 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0162 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 162
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..04/24/25
ATTN...WFO...MAF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 162
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC043-103-135-301-329-371-389-443-461-475-495-240240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREWSTER CRANE ECTOR
LOVING MIDLAND PECOS
REEVES TERRELL UPTON
WARD WINKLER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC MD 537
MD 0537 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 164... FOR TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO
WESTERN NORTH TX AND SOUTHWEST OK
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0537
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO WESTERN NORTH TX AND SOUTHWEST
OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 164...
VALID 240330Z - 240530Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 164
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING
AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DISCUSSION...SOME UPSCALE GROWTH IS UNDERWAY WITH A STORM CLUSTER
SOUTHEAST OF AMARILLO, WITH EVIDENCE OF ACCELERATING AND EXPANDING
OUTFLOW, AND DEVELOPMENT OF NEW STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
PRIMARY BOWING SEGMENT. A 79 MPH GUST WAS RECENTLY MEASURED NEAR
SILVERTON, TX WITH THIS CLUSTER. THIS EVOLUTION IS LIKELY BEING
AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET, AS OBSERVED IN
RECENT VWPS FROM KLBB. IN THE SHORT TERM, SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS CLUSTER WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE
HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO, WHILE SOME INCREASE IN SEVERE-WIND
POTENTIAL COULD ACCOMPANY THE GROWING COLD POOL.
LONGER-TERM EVOLUTION OF THIS CLUSTER REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AS IT
ENCOUNTERS GREATER DOWNSTREAM CINH WITH TIME. HOWEVER, IF THE COLD
POOL CAN CONTINUE TO GROW AND ORGANIZE, AND POTENTIALLY ENCOMPASS
ONGOING SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS TO THE EAST OF LUBBOCK, THEN SOME SEVERE
THREAT WILL SPREAD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TX AND SOUTHWEST OK
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON SHORT-TERM
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS, LOCAL WATCH EXTENSION AND/OR NEW WATCH
ISSUANCE MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED PRIOR TO THE MIDNIGHT CDT
EXPIRATION TIME OF WW 164.
..DEAN/GUYER.. 04/24/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 32990038 33130095 33970242 34370252 35000100 35099924
33949875 33309872 32969929 32909996 32990038
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
READ MORE
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SPC MD 536
MD 0536 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 162... FOR TX TRANS-PECOS INTO
PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0536
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0933 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...TX TRANS-PECOS INTO PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 162...
VALID 240233Z - 240400Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 162
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO LATE
EVENING.
DISCUSSION...A SMALL STORM CLUSTER IS ONGOING THIS EVENING TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF FORT STOCKTON. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED
OVER THE LAST HOUR, POTENTIALLY DUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASING MLCINH
WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER, FAVORABLE
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG BUOYANCY (AS NOTED ON THE 00Z
MAF AND DRT SOUNDINGS), WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.
MEANWHILE, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (AIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL JET) REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR AN
UPTICK IN STORM INTENSITY THROUGH LATE EVENING, AIDED BY INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW (AS NOTED IN RECENT VWPS FROM KDFX).
ANY NOTABLE UPTICK COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST A
LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, THOUGH IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN BECOME REESTABLISHED WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
..DEAN.. 04/24/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 31070248 31110138 31010048 30140044 29580077 29510107
29520148 29620221 29770290 30180282 31070248
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
READ MORE
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SPC APR 24, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
VALID 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
WEST TEXAS AND WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED
WIND DAMAGE IS LIKELY.
...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS PERSIST THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TX
AND WESTERN KS, WITH A COMBINATION OF SPLITTING CELLS AND CLUSTERS.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING DUE TO LITTLE
IF ANY CAPPING, WITH ONLY A GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION/PRUNING IN
COVERAGE. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN FROM CENTRAL INTO
NORTHWEST TX, WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT HAIL THREAT. IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL, MERGING STORMS AND AGGREGATE OUTFLOWS MAY LOCALLY
PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE. WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED TONIGHT, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THETA-E ADVECTION AND INCREASE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR A BIT AS WELL.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 534 AND 535.
..JEWELL.. 04/24/2025
READ MORE
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