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LU9DCE > ALERT 23.06.23 20:51l 583 Lines 20879 Bytes #43 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 16-JUN23
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Sent: 230616/1200Z 2588@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQK6.0.23
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PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 314
WW 314 SEVERE TSTM AL FL LA MS CW 160650Z - 161500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 314
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2023
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NORTHERN TO EASTERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN TO PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 150 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A BOWING MCS WILL SWEEP EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR A
SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING, OFFERING SEVERE WINDS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS OF 75+ MPH AND
DERECHO EXTENT POSSIBLE. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY SPIN UP IN EMBEDDED
QLCS MESOVORTICES, AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF
NATCHITOCHES LA TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CRESTVIEW FL. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 312...WW 313...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
29045.
...EDWARDS
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 313
WW 313 SEVERE TSTM AR LA OK TX 160325Z - 160900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 313
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2023
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1025 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 85
MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...CLUSTER OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO
ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD EVOLVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND THE ARK-LA-TEX AREA OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED BOWING
STRUCTURES WILL BE CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WIND SWATHS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PARIS TX TO 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF SHREVEPORT LA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 312...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
29040.
...GRAMS
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 314 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0314 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS FOR WATCH 0314 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 312 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0312 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 312
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW GYI
TO 30 NNE DUA TO 30 SSE MLC TO 25 SSW RKR.
..JEWELL..06/16/23
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 312
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-023-095-127-160740-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CHOCTAW
MARSHALL PUSHMATAHA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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SPC MD 1098
MD 1098 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 313... FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1098
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2023
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 313...
VALID 160823Z - 161030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 313
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND WIND MAY PERSIST
BEYOND WATCH 313 EXPIRATION TIME OVER NORTHEAST TX, AND PERHAPS
EXTENDING INTO WESTERN LA.
DISCUSSION...A FEW SEVERE STORMS PERSIST TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST TX,
ELEVATED ABOVE THE OUTFLOW FROM THE RECENT MCS NOW OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL LA. WHILE THE SURFACE AIR MASS HAS BEEN COOLED, ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 F EXISTS SOUTH
OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG INSTABILITY.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL AS WELL, AS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE MAINTAIN A FEED OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR ATOP
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW STRENGTHENING OF THE WESTERNMOST LINE OF
STORMS NOW MOVING INTO VAN ZANDT COUNTY, TX. THIS LINE IS ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE 850 MB WINDS, AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE LINE APPEAR
TO BE PROPAGATING IN MORE OF A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. ECHO TOPS
ARE IMPRESSIVE AT OVER 60,000 FT AGL, AND, WIND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE
LEVELS HAVE BEEN MEASURED, EVEN IN THE COOLER OUTFLOW AIR.
GIVEN THE VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND AFOREMENTIONED INFLOW
TRAJECTORIES FOR THESE STORMS, THEY MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE
HAIL AND WIND RISK FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, EXTENDING IN TIME BEYOND
WATCH 313 EXPIRATION OF 09Z. AS SUCH, LOCAL COUNTY EXTENSIONS MAY
BECOME NECESSARY.
..JEWELL.. 06/16/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 31979607 32489625 32839616 33129574 33239546 33079511
32759463 32439416 32139350 31589339 31219358 31069433
31149461 31629524 31979607
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SPC JUN 16, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2023
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH
WIND-DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL, WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SEVERE STORMS WITH
WIND-DAMAGE AND HAIL POTENTIAL, ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC.
...GREAT PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY,
AS A BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA AND COLORADO. A POCKET OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN COLORADO,
WHERE MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 1500 J/KG. AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY, CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL TAKE
PLACE IN THE PALMER DIVIDE OF EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO. STORMS WILL
FORM AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN EASTERN COLORADO
HAVE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PEAKING IN THE 7 TO 8 C/KM RANGE, WITH
0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KNOTS. THIS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER, WITH EMBEDDED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS CLUSTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS FAR
EASTERN COLORADO, REACHING WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY
EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP, THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS SHOULD BE WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL.
FURTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS, EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST
TEXAS, CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. IN SPITE OF THIS, AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BECOME STEEP. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
...SOUTHEAST...
NORTHWEST FLOW AT MID-LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY. A LINEAR MCS, ASSOCIATED WITH A WIND-DAMAGE THREAT, IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AROUND
DAYBREAK. THIS LINE OF STORMS MAY REMAIN INTACT, MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING. IF
THE MCS CAN REMAIN SUSTAINED, IT WILL STABILIZE SOME OF THE AIRMASS.
HOWEVER, MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM,
SHOULD REPLENISH INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO BE COME MAXIMIZED
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY FROM FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY, MODERATE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THIS ZONE, MAINLY DUE TO DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND MID-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR. THE
THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT.
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND SCATTERED ORGANIZED MULTICELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL.
...MID-ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY,
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF A FRONT MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM
EASTERN VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO NEW JERSEY. THIS, COMBINED WITH 0-6
KM SHEAR IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE, WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SEVERE
STORMS. MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS THAT BECOME ORGANIZED COULD PRODUCE
WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, REDUCING THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE REGION.
..BROYLES/JIRAK.. 06/16/2023
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SPC JUN 16, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2023
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE NEAR
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST.
...SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE WITH WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE ARKLATEX VICINITY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CAPPING ACROSS MUCH OF OK/NORTH TX INTO THE ARKLATEX
FOR MUCH OF THE DIURNAL PERIOD. A BELT OF STRONG WEST/SOUTHWEST
SOUTHERN-STREAM FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY
INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TOWARD FL
THROUGH THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
WHILE 850-700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER WARM, COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM NM/CO
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A SEASONALLY MOIST
AIRMASS WILL RESIDE TO THE EAST OF A DRYLINE FROM SOUTHEAST CO
THROUGH WEST TX INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE
GULF COAST STATES. STRONG HEATING OF THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT, COUPLED
WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EAST/SOUTHEAST TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND FL. THIS WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A FAIRLY WIDE AREA FROM EASTERN CO/WEST TX
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/FL VICINITY.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
GUSTS, THOUGH AT LEAST LOW-END TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL ACCOMPANY
STORMS FROM SOUTHEAST CO INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES, AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST.
AFTER 00Z, A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT FROM THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A DEVELOPING
LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
SUPPORT EROSION OF CAPPING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL OK. STORMS MAY
DEVELOP INTO BOWING CLUSTERS DURING THE EVENING AND POSE SOME
CONTINUED SEVERE RISK EASTWARD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL OK DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.
..LEITMAN.. 06/16/2023
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SPC JUN 16, 2023 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2023
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKANSAS
AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA VICINITY INTO PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY FROM PORTIONS
OF THE OZARKS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. DAMAGING GUSTS WILL
BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS, THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.
...EASTERN OK/ARKLATEX INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY...
A COMPACT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER KS/OK SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL EAST/SOUTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
BY MONDAY MORNING. A BELT OF 50-60 KT 500 MB WESTERLY FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION, WITH 30-40 KT OF 850-700 MB FLOW ALSO NOTED.
A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO PERSIST OVER THE
REGION ATOP A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER (SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S F). THIS WILL RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF STRONG
DESTABILIZATION BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CONVECTION MAY
BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OK AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS
PARTS OF AR BEFORE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
THE ARKLATEX VICINITY ALONG OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION. ONE OR
MORE BOWING CLUSTERS OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST
FROM AR/NORTHERN LA TOWARD THE MS/AL VICINITY, POSING A RISK FOR
MAINLY DAMAGING GUSTS. GIVEN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY MORE
DISCRETE STORM MODES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORM MODE GENERALLY
FAVORING BOWS/LINEAR DEVELOPMENT MAY TEMPER THE TORNADO RISK.
HOWEVER, FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG 0-1 KM SRH
SUGGEST AT LEAST LOW-PROBABILITY TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST.
..LEITMAN.. 06/16/2023
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SPC JUN 16, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2023
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE DAY 4-8/MON-FRI PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY A LARGE, PERSISTENT WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH,
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, AND A
WEAK UPPER ANTICYCLONE PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST VICINITY.
STRONG STORMS MAY BE ONGOING DAY 4/MON MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY AS A CONTINUATION OF CONVECTION FROM THE
DAY 3/SUN PERIOD. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN HOW DAY 3 CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE, AND HOW FAR SOUTH/EAST IT MAY TRACK IF A FAST-MOVING
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPS, 15% SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL NOT BE
INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME, THOUGH MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT
OUTLOOKS.
BEYOND DAY 4, THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN THE STRONG SOUTHERN-STREAM FLOW
THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. FOR THE PAST
WEEK. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
WESTERN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON DAY 5/TUE. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT 60S F
DEWPOINTS INTO THE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN MT.
MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR GIVEN STRONG HEATING
OF THE MOIST AIRMASS FROM WESTERN NE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
HOWEVER, STRENGTH OF VERTICAL SHEAR IS UNCERTAIN (STRONG SHEAR MAY
BE FOCUSED MORE NORTHWARD INTO CANADA) AND CAPPING MAY LIMIT OVERALL
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. TRENDS WILL BE MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE RISK
AREAS IN THE COMING DAYS.
BY DAY 6-8/WED-FRI STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE WESTERN U.S. AND DISPLACED FROM DEEPER
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS GIVEN ABUNDANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY, ON THE WESTERN FLANK
OF THE UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER, GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR AND A LACK OF
CONSEQUENTIAL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT LEADS TO LOW PREDICTABILITY FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2023
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MIDLEVEL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO TODAY AHEAD
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. IN RESPONSE AT THE
SURFACE, A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO-TEXAS BORDER. DESPITE MIDLEVEL AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO, A DRY AIRMASS
WILL YIELD VERY DEEP, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS UP TO AROUND 500 MB
(OVER 15 KFT AGL) BY THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, RH VALUES WILL
FALL BELOW 10 PERCENT WITH SUSTAINED WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVER 20
MPH FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. A CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED
WHERE THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MET AND FUELS
ARE SUFFICIENTLY DRY.
..JIRAK.. 06/16/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2023
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SATURDAY WITH AN ENHANCED BELT OF
WESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY THE AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN
STRONG WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF NEW MEXICO. A
PERSISTENT, DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO YIELD
AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS CONCURRENT WITH 20 MPH
SUSTAINED WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. A CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN
DELINEATED WHERE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND DRY FUELS OVERLAP.
..JIRAK.. 06/16/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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