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LU9DCE > ALERT 24.06.23 14:00l 746 Lines 26160 Bytes #44 (0) @ WW
BID : 3016_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 24-JUN23
Path: IW8PGT<I3XTY<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 230624/1200Z 3016@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQK6.0.23
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PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 369
WW 369 SEVERE TSTM IA NE SD 240810Z - 241500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 369
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
310 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2023
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN IOWA
EASTERN NEBRASKA
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 310 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...QUASI-LINEAR MCS WITH A HISTORY OF SEVERE GUSTS WILL
PERSIST EAST OF EXISTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 366 AND 368 AND
ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY TOWARD WESTERN IOWA, WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL
AIR MASS THEN GETS MORE STABLE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT THROUGH A
WARM-FRONTAL ZONE. SEVERE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT,
WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL STILL POSSIBLE.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH OF SIOUX
CITY IA TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF OMAHA NE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF
THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 366...WW 368...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
26035.
...EDWARDS
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 368
WW 368 SEVERE TSTM NE 240335Z - 241100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 368
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2023
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1035 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...INITIAL STORMS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE SUPERCELLS, WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL OF 1-2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER. FARTHER WEST, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A
LINE WHILE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 75 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE OF STORMS, AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF ONEILL
NE TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HASTINGS NE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF
THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 363...WW 365...WW
366...WW 367...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
26035.
...THOMPSON
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 366
WW 366 SEVERE TSTM SD 240225Z - 241000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 366
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
925 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2023
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 925 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF STORMS, INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS INITIALLY,
WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO A LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE SEVERE OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 75 MPH AND LARGE
HAIL OF 1-2 INCHES IN DIAMETER, THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO
OCCUR WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF
PIERRE SD TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CHAMBERLAIN SD. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 362...WW 363...WW 365...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
26035.
...THOMPSON
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 369 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0369 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS FOR WATCH 0369 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 368 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0368 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 368
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW EAR
TO 25 SE ONL TO 30 SSE YKN.
..MOSIER..06/24/23
ATTN...WFO...GID...OAX...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 368
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC001-003-011-019-023-035-037-059-077-079-081-093-099-119-121-
125-137-139-141-143-159-163-167-179-185-241040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ANTELOPE BOONE
BUFFALO BUTLER CLAY
COLFAX FILLMORE GREELEY
HALL HAMILTON HOWARD
KEARNEY MADISON MERRICK
NANCE PHELPS PIERCE
PLATTE POLK SEWARD
SHERMAN STANTON WAYNE
YORK
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 367 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0367 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 367
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE ABI
TO 15 ESE SPS.
..MOSIER..06/24/23
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 367
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC237-337-363-367-429-497-503-240740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JACK MONTAGUE PALO PINTO
PARKER STEPHENS WISE
YOUNG
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 366 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0366 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 366
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE ANW TO
10 NNE 9V9 TO 45 SE MBG.
..MOSIER..06/24/23
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 366
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC003-005-009-015-017-023-025-035-043-049-053-059-061-067-069-
073-077-087-097-107-111-115-135-240840-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BEADLE BON HOMME
BRULE BUFFALO CHARLES MIX
CLARK DAVISON DOUGLAS
FAULK GREGORY HAND
HANSON HUTCHINSON HYDE
JERAULD KINGSBURY MCCOOK
MINER POTTER SANBORN
SPINK YANKTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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SPC MD 1238
MD 1238 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 366...368...369... FOR FAR
SOUTHEAST SD...FAR NORTHEAST NE...FAR NORTHWEST IA...FAR SOUTHWEST MN
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1238
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0437 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2023
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST SD...FAR NORTHEAST NE...FAR NORTHWEST
IA...FAR SOUTHWEST MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 366...368...369...
VALID 240937Z - 241100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 366, 368,
369 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...DAMAGING GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO BEFORE THE LINE THEN BEGINS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHWEST MN.
DISCUSSION...FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD AND EASTERN NE HAS
TRENDED A BIT MORE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THIS
SHIFT HAS LIKELY OCCURRED INTO RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING
MID-LEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NE
AND SD. THIS SHIFT TOWARDS MORE NORTHEASTERLY MOTION ALIGNS THAT
PORTION OF THE LINE MORE FAVORABLY TO THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW. RECENT
VELOCITY DATA FROM KFSD SHOWS STRONGER INBOUNDS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
THIS LINE CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH FAR SOUTHEAST SD AND FAR
NORTHWEST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MN OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
INSTABILITY DROPS OFF QUICKLY WITH NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT INTO
SOUTHWEST MN, WHERE COOLER TEMPERATURES, LESS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE,
AND MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT. CONSEQUENTLY, THE LINE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THIS LESS BUOYANT
ENVIRONMENT, LIKELY PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR A DOWNSTREAM WATCH OVER
SOUTHWEST MN.
..MOSIER.. 06/24/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...
LAT...LON 42989708 43279729 44069732 44359689 44309606 43919534
42819534 42449677 42989708
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SPC JUN 24, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2023
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN
ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH WIND DAMAGE, LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES, WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF IOWA
AND MINNESOTA INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
...SYNOPSIS...
A SEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
...IOWA INTO MN/NORTHERN MO/WESTERN IL...
AN MCS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SOMEWHERE FROM
EXTREME SOUTHEAST SD/EASTERN NE INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IA AND SOUTHERN
MN. THIS COULD POSE A THREAT OF LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS EARLY IN THE
DAY, THOUGH A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING (EXCEPT POSSIBLY FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE OUTFLOW).
IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION, SOME RECOVERY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED, THOUGH THE DETAILS REMAIN
UNCLEAR DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY POSITION
AND POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY WITHIN A
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HOWEVER, WITH A WESTERLY MIDLEVEL
JET EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF IA
INTO NORTHERN MO AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN MN. A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR/NORTH OF ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, AND POTENTIALLY
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL (POSSIBLY VERY LARGE)
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SOME TORNADO THREAT
MAY ALSO EVOLVE, DEPENDING ON DETAILS REGARDING OUTFLOW MODIFICATION
IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION.
ANOTHER AREA OF BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MN, WHERE RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE SURFACE CYCLONE. BACKED SURFACE WINDS AND
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH MAY SUPPORT TRANSIENT ROTATION WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.
...LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND VICINITY...
CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY OR REDEVELOP LATER TODAY INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN MO, WHERE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF OUTFLOW FROM THE
OVERNIGHT MCS IMPINGES UPON STRONG BUOYANCY. WHILE MIDLEVEL FLOW
WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER NORTH, DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS WITHIN
THIS REGIME, WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING
GUSTS. SOME UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING MCS COULD
OCCUR, WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD A DAMAGING-WIND THREAT INTO A
LARGER PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER, THIS SCENARIO
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, AND WILL DEPEND ON MESOSCALE DETAILS
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE EARLY-MORNING MCS AND ITS ATTENDANT
OUTFLOW.
ASIDE FROM THE SCENARIOS DESCRIBED ABOVE, WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF LA INTO
SOUTHERN MS WITHIN A WEAKLY FORCED BUT ALSO WEAKLY CAPPED AND
STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY
WEAK, BUT VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG
MULTICELLS AND/OR A MARGINAL SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS.
...SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TX...
WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL
TX, WITHIN A HOT AND WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT. ANY DEEP CONVECTION
WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS.
DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR MAY ALSO BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
HAIL THREAT, ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE BIG COUNTRY REGION INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL TX.
..DEAN/LYONS.. 06/24/2023
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SPC JUN 24, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2023
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI,
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. LARGE HAIL, WIND DAMAGE AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY, AS A 50 TO 60 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO CORRIDOR OF STRONG INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO FIRST INITIATE ACROSS EASTERN
ILLINOIS, FAR WESTERN INDIANA AND LOWER MICHIGAN. FROM THIS
CONVECTION, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OR LINE OF STORMS
AFFECTING MUCH OF KENTUCKY, TENNESSEE AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS.
THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, ENHANCING LIFT AND CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE VICINITY OF
LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, BENEATH THE NOSE OF THE
MID-LEVEL JET, HAVE MLCAPE PEAKING NEAR 4000 J/KG. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE NEAR 50 KNOTS, WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
GENERALLY NEAR OR ABOVE 300 M2/S2. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO THREAT.
IT APPEARS THAT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE MOST LIKELY EARLY
IN THE EVENT, BUT THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE MULTICELL LINE
SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE LATER IN THE EVENT. A
LOT WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A LINEAR MCS CAN BECOME ORGANIZED, AND
HOW QUICKLY A COLD POOL CAN DEVELOP. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING THE EXACT TRACK OF A POTENTIAL MCS, THE TIMING OF THE
UPPER-TROUGH AND DISTRIBUTION OF INSTABILITY. AN AREA OF HIGHER
WIND-DAMAGE THREAT COULD BE LATER ADDED ONCE THESE FACTORS BECOME
MORE CLEAR.
FURTHER WEST INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE STORMS,
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MORE LIMITED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY KEEP
ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL.
..BROYLES.. 06/24/2023
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SPC JUN 24, 2023 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2023
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY FROM THE CAROLINAS
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, WHERE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
...EASTERN U.S...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON MONDAY, AS AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM THE CAROLINAS
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. CONVECTION WILL
INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIANS AND SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT. IT APPEARS THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT WILL DEVELOP WITH STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT COULD BE
FROM SOUTHERN VIRGINIA INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA, WHERE MODEL
FORECASTS SUGGEST THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. STORMS THAT FORM IN THIS MORE FAVORABLE ZONE COULD HAVE A
THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL, MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY. AT
THE SURFACE, A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MAXIMIZED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES DURING THE DAY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY FORM FROM EASTERN WYOMING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA, ALONG AND NEAR THE INSTABILITY
AXIS. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR SCOTTSBLUFF,
NEBRASKA HAVE MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 TO 60
KNOTS. THIS, COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8 C/KM
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. THE LARGE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HIGH STORM
BASES. THE STORMS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL.
..BROYLES.. 06/24/2023
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SPC JUN 24, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2023
VALID 271200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...TUESDAY/DAY 4 TO THURSDAY/DAY 6...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY. A CORRIDOR OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BENEATH THE RIDGE EACH
AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF THIS, WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ISOLATED IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. FURTHER NORTH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS, CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATER AS SEVERAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. MCS DEVELOPMENT AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY IN PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS. HOWEVER, THE MODELS
DIFFER WIDELY ON POTENTIAL SCENARIOS. IF THE MODELS CAN COME INTO
AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS, THEN A THREAT AREA COULD BE
CONSIDERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE MID-WEEK.
...FRIDAY/DAY 7 AND SATURDAY/DAY 8...
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A MOIST AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE
FROM THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE GREATEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL COULD BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE ANTICYCLONE FROM SOUTH DAKOTA EASTWARD TO WISCONSIN. THIS
WOULD DEPEND UPON THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEING FASTER, WHICH WOULD
BRING MORE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES. A
SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. UNCERTAINTY IS
SUBSTANTIAL AT THIS TIME. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE MODELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO LATE THE WEEK.
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2023
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TODAY AS
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING INTENSIFIES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. WHILE
WEAKER THAN THE PRECEDING DAYS, 25-35 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
STILL AID IN SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SURFACE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AZ AND NM. GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM ABOVE 90 F. AREA
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP AND WELL-MIXED PROFILES SUPPORTING VERY
LOW RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS THROUGH PEAK
HEATING. FUELS ACROSS THE AREA REMAIN VERY DRY AND SUPPORTING FIRE
SPREAD. THUS, WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
FROM EASTERN AZ INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FIRE CONCERNS SHOULD WANE THIS EVENING AS WINDS WEAKEN
AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
EASTERN NM.
..LYONS.. 06/24/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2023
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND IMPINGE
ON THE ENHANCED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
DAY2/SUNDAY. WHILE HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH, THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN
DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE DRIEST AIR MASS. STILL, SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF SURFACE WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AZ AND WESTERN
NM, WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS OF 15-20 MPH
LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP MIXING, AND ANOTHER DAY OF WARM
TEMPERATURES, WILL ALSO SUPPORT LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. FAVORABLE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FOR
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM WHERE FUELS
REMAIN QUITE DRY. LESS CONFIDENCE IN RECEPTIVE FUELS EXISTS FARTHER
WEST INTO AZ. HOWEVER, A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
..LYONS.. 06/24/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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HYPERTEXT PREPROCESSOR - DEVELOPED BY LU9DCE - VERSION 3
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