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LU9DCE > NEWS 08.09.90 19:00l 332 Lines 12988 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 21655_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 08-SEP
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<HB9ON<HB9ON<PI8ZTM<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 260908/1615Z 21655@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE SEP 8 07:29:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE SEP 8 07:29:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE SEP 8 07:29:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE SEP 8 07:29:02 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC SEP 8, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT TUE SEP 08 2026
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE SPORADIC OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR FROM PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN SK LATE THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL MB INTO NORTHERN ON AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A BELT OF ENHANCED MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE MAINTAINED BETWEEN THOSE FEATURES FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MS VALLEY WITH THE
TRAILING EXTENSION OF THE BOUNDARY MOVING MORE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MID-MO VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z TUESDAY
FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID-MO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITHIN A
ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG A NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL JET (LLJ). SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF WI AND THE U.P. OF MI, LIMITING THE DEGREE
OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER RISK
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM IA THROUGH
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NE INTO NORTHERN KS, STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING
ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF LINGERING MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, FEATURING STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. WHEN COMBINED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
TO LOW/MID 70S F, THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG.
IN THE ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS/LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT, CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND ANY PRECEDING CONFLUENCE
ZONES/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IS EXPECTED TO FOSTER A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AMIDST THE
DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE EFFECTIVE WARM SECTOR WITH
AROUND 30-35 KT FORECAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. A LARGELY PARALLEL
SHEAR-VECTOR ORIENTATION WITH THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT INITIAL STORMS
SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS OR A BROKEN BAND WITH AN
ASSOCIATED RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING. ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE; HOWEVER, POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE
OVERALL THREAT. THE 00Z MODELS DO INDICATE SOME LLJ ENHANCEMENT OVER
CENTRAL IA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, RESULTING IN A CORRIDOR
OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. WHILE A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE, A MORE ROBUST THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY LARGELY
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORMS.
..MEAD/CHALMERS.. 09/08/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 8, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 AM CDT TUE SEP 08 2026
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
...UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, TO THE NORTH OF A CORRIDOR OF
MODEST INSTABILITY. AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN NY DURING THE EVENING, ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. WHILE MODEST
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK, STRONGER
DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL SUPPORT SPORADIC STRONG GUSTS.
...CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
STRONGER INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITHIN A MOIST AND HOT AIRMASS FROM
KS TO THE LOWER MO AND LOWER OH VALLEYS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKE UPPER TROUGH, RESULTING IN
MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR, ESPECIAL ACROSS KS. DESPITE MODEST SHEAR,
MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2500 AMID STEEPER LOW AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL SUPPORT SOME RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION. STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MAINLY POSE A RISK FOR
DAMAGING GUSTS. WHERE MARGINALLY STRONGER SHEAR WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY VICINITY, SMALL HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.
..LEITMAN.. 09/08/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 8, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 AM CDT TUE SEP 08 2026
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW ON THURSDAY.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY, WHILE
A SECOND UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S.
STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY AND OVER NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN THE WAKE OF A
PRIOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SEASONALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
BE IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN U.S. POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING AND MODEST
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, GENERALLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY GIVEN A LACK OF
FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE EXCEPTION MAY BE WITH A STRONG STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN A POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.
A STALLED FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY, BUT
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES COULD RESULT IN SOME MODESTLY
ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS EARLY DAY CONVECTION
AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THIS AREA, RESULTING IN UNCERTAINTY IN STORM
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHERMORE, LAPSE RATES
WILL REMAIN MODEST AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK, PRECLUDING
SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..LEITMAN.. 09/08/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 8, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT TUE SEP 08 2026
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...DAYS 4-5/FRI-SAT -- PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES VICINITY...
SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST ON DAY 4/FRIDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SPREADS
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO
STRONG DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND ENHANCED VERTICAL
SHEAR COURTESY OF A MODEST UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST VICINITY, SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAINLY FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD PERSIST INTO DAY 5 SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS VICINITY BUT
CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE, BUT STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
INCREASING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF STRONGER INSTABILITY,
PRECLUDING 15 PERCENT DELINEATION AT THIS TIME.
...DAYS 6-8/SUN-TUE...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, AND SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD
AGAIN SWEEP ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
VICINITY. MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE GENERALLY MAINTAINS
STRONGER INSTABILITY OFFSET FROM ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT, PARTLY DUE TO
THE EARLY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE DAY 4-5/FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIME
FRAME AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
WAKE OF THAT FRONTAL PASSAGE. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND
PROBABILITIES COULD BECOME NECESSARY IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT TUE SEP 08 2026
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A TRAILING UPPER-LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
TODAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACCELERATES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A
DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN MANITOBA CANADA WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS A RESULT, THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL BOLSTER WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVER MUCH
OF NORTHERN/EASTERN WY AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN SD, THE
NE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN MT. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH A DRY AIR
MASS AUGMENTED BY DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY.
...SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHERN/EASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK
HILLS VICINITY...
A 50-60 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET AT THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN MT, EASTERN WY AND ADJACENT
NORTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY AS WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE
AIDED BY A LINGERING MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT. MINIMUM DAYTIME RH OF
10-20% WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN WY WITH LATE DAY
CLOUD COVER INFILTRATING INTO SOUTHERN MT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
SECONDARY COLD FRONT, LIMITING RH REDUCTIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MT/WY BORDER. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN MONDAY, THE DEEP LAYER WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD STILL PROMOTE WEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH BY
MID-AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS AND LOW RH COINCIDENT WITH DRY FUELS WILL
SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA,
NORTHERN/EASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS AREAS. THE DAYTIME
WESTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH AN EARLY/LATE EVENING NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT
COULD ALSO IMPACT ACTIVE WILDFIRES WITHIN THIS REGION.
..WILLIAMS.. 09/08/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT TUE SEP 08 2026
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
LINGERING BUT REDUCED WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL WY MAINLY IN THE LEE OF LARGER MOUNTAIN
RANGES AS WELL AS SOUTHERN WY. A FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE DRYING
ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN WY, ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED WEST/NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD LIMIT A BROADER
FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR D2/WEDNESDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND A
MITIGATED FUEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
..WILLIAMS.. 09/08/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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