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CX2SA > SWPC 01.11.15 00:23l 63 Lines 2315 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 30615_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151031/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:30615 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:30615_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Oct 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
31/1752Z from Region 2443 (N07E43). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(01 Nov, 02 Nov, 03 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
404 km/s at 31/0905Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 30/2116Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 31/2048Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Nov), unsettled to
severe storm levels on day two (02 Nov) and active to major storm levels
on day three (03 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Oct 119
Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 31 Oct 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 008/008-036/065-033/050
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/25
Minor Storm 05/35/40
Major-severe storm 01/40/30
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/01/05
Minor Storm 30/10/10
Major-severe storm 20/90/85
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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