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CX2SA > SWPC 03.11.15 00:23l 64 Lines 2413 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 32062_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151102/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:32062 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:32062_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Nov 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
02/1000Z from Region 2445 (N15W55). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(03 Nov, 04 Nov, 05 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
362 km/s at 02/0638Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 02/1113Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 02/1229Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at minor storm to severe storm levels on day one (03 Nov), quiet
to major storm levels on day two (04 Nov) and quiet to active levels on
day three (05 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one, two, and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov, 05 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Nov 122
Predicted 03 Nov-05 Nov 125/125/125
90 Day Mean 02 Nov 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov 012/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 038/062-016/021-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/35/30
Minor Storm 35/40/10
Major-severe storm 40/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 01/05/15
Minor Storm 10/20/30
Major-severe storm 85/70/35
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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