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CX2SA > SWPC 09.11.15 00:22l 63 Lines 2358 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 33161_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151108/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:33161 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:33161_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Nov 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
07/2321Z from Region 2449 (S12E57). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
559 km/s at 08/1645Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 07/2101Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 08/1026Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4276 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (09 Nov) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Nov 108
Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 108/108/110
90 Day Mean 08 Nov 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 029/039
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 019/025-014/018-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/25
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 45/30/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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