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CX2SA > SWPC 10.11.15 00:23l 65 Lines 2382 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 33206_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151109/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:33206 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:33206_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Nov 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
09/1312Z from Region 2449 (S11E32). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov,
12 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 634 km/s at 09/2038Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 09/1926Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 09/1448Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 17885
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (10 Nov), quiet to
active levels on day two (11 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (12 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Nov 108
Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 105/110/110
90 Day Mean 09 Nov 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 020/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 015/020-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/25/15
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 55/30/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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