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CX2SA > SWPC 12.11.15 00:23l 63 Lines 2299 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 33351_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151111/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:33351 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:33351_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Nov 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Nov,
13 Nov, 14 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 805 km/s at 11/0609Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 11/0109Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/0012Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 59508
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (12 Nov), unsettled to
active levels on day two (13 Nov) and active to minor storm levels on
day three (14 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Nov 105
Predicted 12 Nov-14 Nov 105/105/110
90 Day Mean 11 Nov 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov 032/035
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov 021/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 022/030-012/015-018/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/40
Minor Storm 25/10/20
Major-severe storm 10/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 60/40/55
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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