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CX2SA > SWPC 14.11.15 00:23l 64 Lines 2384 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 33483_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151113/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:33483 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:33483_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Nov 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
13/0128Z from Region 2452 (S08E14). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Nov,
15 Nov, 16 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
492 km/s at 13/2018Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 13/1439Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 13/1320Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 88813 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (14 Nov), quiet to
active levels on day two (15 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (16 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 103
Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 105/105/100
90 Day Mean 13 Nov 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 017/022-011/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/15
Minor Storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 55/40/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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