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CX2SA > SWPC 17.11.15 00:22l 62 Lines 2254 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 33765_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151116/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:33765 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:33765_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Nov 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Nov,
18 Nov, 19 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 424 km/s at 15/2105Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 16/0447Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 16/0449Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3129
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (18 Nov, 19 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Nov 106
Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 104/104/102
90 Day Mean 16 Nov 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 007/010-019/025-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/30
Minor Storm 05/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/40/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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