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CX2SA > SWPC 18.11.15 00:23l 64 Lines 2389 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 33859_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151117/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:33859 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:33859_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Nov 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
17/1554Z from Region 2454 (N05E12). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Nov,
19 Nov, 20 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
387 km/s at 16/2335Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/1138Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 17/2012Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 467 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (18 Nov), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (19 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (20 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Nov 107
Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 108/108/106
90 Day Mean 17 Nov 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 022/030-014/020-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/45/10
Minor Storm 30/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/20
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 70/55/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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