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CX2SA > SWPC 21.11.15 00:22l 61 Lines 2219 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 34109_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151120/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:34109 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:34109_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Nov 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Nov,
22 Nov, 23 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
422 km/s at 20/0029Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 20/1956Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 20/0715Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 230 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (21 Nov,
22 Nov, 23 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Nov 111
Predicted 21 Nov-23 Nov 110/112/112
90 Day Mean 20 Nov 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 007/008-009/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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