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CX2SA > SWPC 26.11.15 00:22l 62 Lines 2316 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 34353_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151125/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:34353 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:34353_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Nov 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
25/0827Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (26 Nov, 27 Nov, 28 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 291 km/s at
24/2257Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 25/1843Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached 0 nT at 25/0336Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 218 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (26 Nov,
27 Nov, 28 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Nov 109
Predicted 26 Nov-28 Nov 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 25 Nov 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov 001/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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