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CX2SA > SWPC 01.12.15 00:22l 63 Lines 2288 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 34623_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151130/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:34623 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:34623_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Nov 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
30/1706Z from Region 2458 (N09W36). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Dec,
02 Dec, 03 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 581 km/s at 30/0914Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 30/0804Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 30/0817Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Dec), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (02 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (03
Dec).
III. Event probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Nov 096
Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 095/095/090
90 Day Mean 30 Nov 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 015/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 019/022-009/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 35/35/25
Major-severe storm 40/25/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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