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CX2SA > SWPC 05.12.15 23:36l 65 Lines 2391 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 34839_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IV3ONZ<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<IR0AAB<VE3UIL<CX2SA
Sent: 151204/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:34839 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:34839_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Dec 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
04/1710Z from Region 2462 (N09E57). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Dec,
06 Dec, 07 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
411 km/s at 03/2340Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 04/1950Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 04/1924Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1474 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Dec), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (06 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (07 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Dec 098
Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 100/100/105
90 Day Mean 04 Dec 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 007/008-014/018-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/35/35
Minor Storm 05/20/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/55/55
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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