| |
CX2SA > SWPC 10.12.15 00:23l 64 Lines 2393 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 35162_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151209/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:35162 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:35162_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Dec 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
08/2255Z from Region 2466 (S13E18). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Dec,
11 Dec, 12 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
535 km/s at 08/2255Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/1824Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/1737Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10716 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to minor storm levels on day one (10 Dec), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (11 Dec) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (12 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Dec 109
Predicted 10 Dec-12 Dec 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 09 Dec 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 021/032-021/028-013/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/35
Minor Storm 20/20/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 55/50/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
