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CX2SA > SWPC 11.12.15 00:23l 64 Lines 2358 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 35206_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<HB9CSR<IK2XDE<DB0RES<WA7V<CX2SA
Sent: 151210/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:35206 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:35206_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Dec 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
10/0750Z from Region 2468 (S15E65). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Dec,
12 Dec, 13 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 711 km/s at 10/2058Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 10/0556Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 10/0733Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3235
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (11 Dec) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Dec 109
Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 112/115/120
90 Day Mean 10 Dec 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 017/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 016/022-013/016-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/20
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 45/30/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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