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CX2SA > SWPC 12.12.15 00:22l 64 Lines 2350 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 35272_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151211/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:35272 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:35272_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Dec 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
11/1716Z from Region 2465 (S05E09). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Dec,
13 Dec, 14 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 702 km/s at 11/0207Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 10/2116Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 10/2157Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6095
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (12 Dec, 13 Dec) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Dec 114
Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 115/115/120
90 Day Mean 11 Dec 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 018/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 018/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 013/016-011/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 35/30/25
Major-severe storm 30/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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