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CX2SA > SWPC 14.12.15 00:20l 63 Lines 2277 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 35435_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JM1YTR<JE7YGF<XE1FH<CX2SA
Sent: 151213/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:35435 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:35435_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Dec 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
13/1034Z from Region 2468 (S15E26). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Dec, 15 Dec,
16 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
578 km/s at 12/2234Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 8708 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Dec), quiet to active
levels on day two (15 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (16 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Dec 123
Predicted 14 Dec-16 Dec 125/130/130
90 Day Mean 13 Dec 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 007/008-013/018-018/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/35/40
Minor Storm 01/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/45/50
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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