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CX2SA > SWPC 17.12.15 00:23l 63 Lines 2299 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 35622_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151216/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:35622 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:35622_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Dec 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
16/0903Z from Region 2468 (S16W13). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Dec,
18 Dec, 19 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
654 km/s at 16/0213Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 15/2321Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 15/2320Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 397 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec, 19
Dec).
III. Event probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Dec 126
Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 125/125/125
90 Day Mean 16 Dec 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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