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CX2SA > SWPC 18.12.15 00:23l 64 Lines 2380 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 35697_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151217/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:35697 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:35697_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Dec 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
17/1235Z from Region 2470 (N15E18). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Dec,
19 Dec, 20 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
553 km/s at 17/1836Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/1448Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 17/1448Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 603 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (18 Dec), active to
major storm levels on day two (19 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day
three (20 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Dec 118
Predicted 18 Dec-20 Dec 120/125/125
90 Day Mean 17 Dec 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 011/016-030/042-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/30
Minor Storm 20/35/10
Major-severe storm 05/15/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/05/15
Minor Storm 25/20/35
Major-severe storm 50/70/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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