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CX2SA > SWPC 22.12.15 00:23l 64 Lines 2338 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 35997_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151221/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:35997 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:35997_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Dec 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
21/0103Z from Region 2472 (N04E78). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Dec, 23 Dec,
24 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 452 km/s at 21/0036Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 20/2231Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -18 nT at 20/2210Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1545
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Dec) and quiet levels on
days two and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Dec 122
Predicted 22 Dec-24 Dec 125/130/130
90 Day Mean 21 Dec 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec 033/068
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec 025/040
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec 011/010-006/006-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/10/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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