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CX2SA > SWPC 27.12.15 00:23l 65 Lines 2480 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 36290_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151226/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:36290 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:36290_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Dec 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
26/0510Z from Region 2473 (S22E09). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(27 Dec, 28 Dec, 29 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
640 km/s at 26/2024Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 26/0123Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 26/1958Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3621 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (27 Dec), quiet to
active levels on day two (28 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (29 Dec). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day three (29 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Dec 117
Predicted 27 Dec-29 Dec 115/115/120
90 Day Mean 26 Dec 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec 012/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec 014/016-009/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/20
Minor Storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/40/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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