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CX2SA > SWPC 31.12.15 00:23l 65 Lines 2481 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 36772_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151230/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:36772 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:36772_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Dec 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
30/1905Z from Region 2473 (S21W47). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan,
02 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 398 km/s at
30/0038Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/1819Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/2106Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1656 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (31 Dec), unsettled
to minor storm levels on day two (01 Jan) and unsettled to active levels
on day three (02 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
Class M 40/30/25
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Dec 102
Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 100/105/105
90 Day Mean 30 Dec 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 008/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 028/046-020/024-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/45/40
Minor Storm 35/25/20
Major-severe storm 50/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 01/05/10
Minor Storm 10/25/25
Major-severe storm 90/65/60
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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