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CX2SA > SWPC 02.01.16 04:13l 66 Lines 2476 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 36890-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JM1YTR<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 160101/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:36890 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:36890-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Jan 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 1 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
01/0948Z from Region 2473 (S21W73). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (02 Jan) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (03
Jan, 04 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 537 km/s at 01/0924Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 31/2100Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 31/2105Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1465
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (02 Jan, 03
Jan, 04 Jan). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (02 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Class M 20/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 10/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jan 098
Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 01 Jan 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 025/051
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 018/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 014/018-014/018-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor Storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 45/45/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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