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CX2SA > SWPC 05.01.16 00:23l 62 Lines 2285 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 37087-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160104/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:37087 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:37087-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Jan 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06
Jan, 07 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
482 km/s at 04/0706Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 04/1047Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/0518Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7407 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Jan), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (06 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (07 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jan 095
Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 04 Jan 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 008/008-013/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/40/40
Minor Storm 05/25/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 25/60/60
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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