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CX2SA > SWPC 25.01.16 00:20l 63 Lines 2313 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 38172-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<CX2SA
Sent: 160124/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:38172 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:38172-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Jan 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
24/0455Z from Region 2488 (N04W01). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Jan,
26 Jan, 27 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
519 km/s at 24/1602Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 24/1821Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 24/1725Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12881 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (25 Jan, 26
Jan, 27 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jan 104
Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 105/108/108
90 Day Mean 24 Jan 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 012/015-011/012-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/25
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 35/30/25
Major-severe storm 45/40/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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