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CX2SA > SWPC 26.01.16 00:22l 63 Lines 2334 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 38210-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160125/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:38210 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:38210-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Jan 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
25/0907Z from Region 2489 (N09E54). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Jan,
27 Jan, 28 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 539 km/s at
24/2223Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 25/1314Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached 0 nT at 24/2251Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1553 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (26 Jan, 27 Jan) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jan 108
Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 108/110/110
90 Day Mean 25 Jan 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 012/015-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/30/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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