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W7EES > SWPC 08.09.14 06:43l 54 Lines 2049 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 58C3W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<NA7KR<ZL2BAU<N4JOA<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 140907/2353 22723@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
07/1943Z from Region 2157 (S14E31). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Sep, 09
Sep, 10 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
432 km/s at 06/2106Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 07/0035Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/2323Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9 pfu at
06/2245Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 105 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (08 Sep, 10
Sep) and quiet levels on day two (09 Sep). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08 Sep, 09 Sep, 10 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 30/30/30
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Sep 151
Predicted 08 Sep-10 Sep 148/145/150
90 Day Mean 07 Sep 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep 007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep 008/008-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 20/15/20
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