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CX2SA > SWPC 29.01.16 00:23l 63 Lines 2357 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 38426-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160128/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:38426 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:38426-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Jan 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
28/1202Z from Region 2488 (N04W55). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan,
31 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
376 km/s at 28/0834Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 28/0307Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 28/0825Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 676 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Jan), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (30 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (31 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jan 110
Predicted 29 Jan-31 Jan 110/108/105
90 Day Mean 28 Jan 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 010/012-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/10
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 35/20/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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