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CX2SA > SWPC 05.02.16 00:22l 62 Lines 2254 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 38803-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160204/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:38803 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:38803-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Feb 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 35 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
04/1822Z from Region 2494 (S12E09). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05
Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
514 km/s at 04/1610Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 04/1604Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/1015Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (05 Feb, 07
Feb) and quiet levels on day two (06 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Feb 123
Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 125/125/120
90 Day Mean 04 Feb 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 007/006-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/15
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 25/15/25
Major-severe storm 20/10/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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