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CX2SA > SWPC 07.02.16 00:23l 64 Lines 2380 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 38909-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160206/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:38909 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:38909-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Feb 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 37 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
06/0311Z from Region 2494 (S11W17). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07
Feb, 08 Feb, 09 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
502 km/s at 06/0044Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/1954Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/1908Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 325 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Feb), unsettled to
active levels on day two (08 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day
three (09 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Feb 117
Predicted 07 Feb-09 Feb 115/115/110
90 Day Mean 06 Feb 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 007/010-015/018-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/30
Minor Storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/40/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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