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CX2SA > SWPC 14.02.16 00:23l 64 Lines 2368 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 39159-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160213/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:39159 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:39159-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Feb 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
13/1524Z from Region 2497 (N12W35). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb,
16 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
448 km/s at 13/1859Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 12/2239Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 13/0508Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (14 Feb, 15
Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (16 Feb). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (14 Feb,
15 Feb, 16 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Feb 110
Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 13 Feb 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 011/012-019/027-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/40/25
Minor Storm 15/20/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/20
Minor Storm 30/30/35
Major-severe storm 50/60/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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