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CX2SA > SWPC 17.02.16 00:24l 66 Lines 2525 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 39354-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160216/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:39354 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:39354-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Feb 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
15/2140Z from Region 2497 (N12W62). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (17 Feb, 18 Feb) and
expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on day three
(19 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 669 km/s at 16/2022Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 16/1010Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 16/0847Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (17 Feb), unsettled
to active levels on day two (18 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day
three (19 Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (17 Feb) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day two (18 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M 30/30/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 15/10/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Feb 104
Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 100/095/090
90 Day Mean 16 Feb 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 027/041
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 017/022-014/014-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/25
Minor Storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 55/40/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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