| |
CX2SA > SWPC 19.02.16 00:25l 65 Lines 2395 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 39423-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160218/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:39423 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:39423-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Feb 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 49 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
18/0158Z from Region 2497 (N13, L=091). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Feb,
20 Feb, 21 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 723 km/s at 18/0538Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 17/2156Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 17/2144Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13229
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (19 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (20 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (21 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Feb 095
Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 095/095/100
90 Day Mean 18 Feb 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 021/031
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 024/032
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 015/020-011/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/25/20
Minor Storm 20/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 50/30/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
